IPO market stalls as volatility, AI fears reshape listings landscape.
The twisted story of Blackstone-backed Liftoff Mobile may provide the clearest view into the complications of going public now. The ad-tech firm filed its S-1 in January, withdrew it in February, then confidentially refiled just hours later—keeping its options open while markets lurched. It is not alone.
Fintech company Clear Street filed to go public in January and then pulled the plug a month later. PhonePe, an Indian digital payments provider, shelved its listing plans in March.
Cryptocurrency platform Kraken suspended its IPO plans, while those that debuted saw mixed results. Agibank, a Brazilian digital bank, saw shares fall 10% after its February IPO. Capital Tankers, a Greek tanker fleet that raised $500 million in March—the largest shipping IPO in two decades—fell 12%. Gemini Space Station fared worse, plummeting 80% from its September IPO price. Ola Electric, the Indian EV maker, redirected IPO proceeds from R&D to debt repayment—a pivot that has rattled investors.
Why Now?
The Iran conflict, tariffs, and volatility are reshaping the calculus for would-be issuers. On March 6, the Cboe Volatility Index hovered just below 30—a level that historically suppresses listings. Some P/E giants hedged when describing conditions in recent earnings calls.
“There’s different ways to exit assets. Going through a public process is one. Private processes are more complicated. I would say we are more cautiously optimistic as we sit here now about the year ahead. It’s difficult to predict,” observed Martin Kelly, CFO, Apollo Global Management in February.
AI adds a layer of uncertainty. “The biggest issue for many companies, especially SaaS companies, is whether AI is destroying or at least damaging the business model,” says University of Florida Professor Jay Ritter, who has studied IPO pricing for more than four decades.
Ritter notes that investors today are more discriminating than in 2021, pressing companies on whether they have genuine barriers to entry rather than simply rapid revenue growth.
Swarmer, a Ukrainian defense company whose AI drone software supports combat, seems to have satisfied those demands. It rose from a $5 IPO price touching $65 within days of its March 17 listing.
