World’s Safest Banks 2024: Country Winners

The common thread running through this year’s country winners is the resilience they demonstrated during a period of higher interest rates linked to central bank efforts to tame rising inflation. Now, inflation is declining globally and central banks have begun to ease rates as their focus shifts to sustaining economic growth.

That means banks face a different set of challenges and opportunities. The pace of rate cuts is particularly important for those in developing and frontier economies, which stand to gain from an interest rate stance that favors growth following a prolonged period of elevated rates and sluggish GDP. During that stretch, sovereign rating downgrades, particularly in developing and frontier countries, were often the catalyst for follow-on ratings action on their respective banking systems.

Most of our 16 new country winners were in these developing markets. The overall picture was mixed; however, many jurisdictions saw positive developments, including rating upgrades that benefited their banks.

Negative credit trends and the withdrawal of bank ratings resulted in new winners in three Latin American markets. Following Ecuador’s sovereign debt downgrade last year, due to its deteriorating funding and liquidity profile, Fitch downgraded several Ecuadoran banks as well. However, they maintained Produbanco’s rating, confirming the latter as this year’s winner.

In Bolivia, S&P’s withdrew the remaining rating of incumbent Banco Mercantil Santa Cruz, allowing Banco de Credito to claim the top spot. Similarly in Venezuela, Fitch withdrew its rating of last year’s winner, Mercantil Banco Universal, leaving no rated candidates in that country.

Western Europe sees three new winners this year. Hellenic Bank takes the top spot in Cyprus, aided by a Fitch sovereign debt upgrade and improved bank credit fundamentals. With its leading position as the largest bank in Denmark, Danske Bank is a new winner following a two-notch upgrade by Moody’s in May reflecting improved governance controls in response to findings of deficiencies in its Estonian operations. Fitch cited this operational remediation as well as improved profitability and capitalization as the bases for its upgrade last fall. Islandsbanki is our new winner in Iceland as the bank picked up a new Moody’s rating in September 2023, edging out incumbent Arion banki this year.

Moody’s upgraded its ratings for five Azerbaijani banks, including the International Bank of Azerbaijan (IBA), based in part on improving trends in the country’s economy, including efforts to diversify beyond the oil sector. While IBA’s score is equal to last year’s winner, Kapital Bank, IBA is larger, earning it the top spot for 2024.

Likewise, in Georgia, TBC Bank is slightly bigger than last year’s winner, Bank of Georgia, giving TBC the Safest Bank title. In Turkey, Fitch and Moody’s upgraded a range of banks following their upgrade of Turkey’s sovereign debt and reflecting increased confidence in the new macroeconomic policies the government implemented last year. These in turn benefit the banking sector, in part by improving access to foreign funding. Each agency acted on up to 17 banks. When the dust settled, Turkiye Garanti Bankasi emerged as this year’s winner. (Fitch upgraded 24 Turkish banks in September, but this rating action occurred after our ratings cutoff date of August 16, 2024.)

Indonesia’s largest bank, state-owned Bank Mandiri, benefits from its leading franchise, solid credit profile, and an improving operating environment. As it is a systemically important domestic bank, both Fitch and S&P cited enhanced levels of government support as the rationale for their upgrade of Mandiri, allowing it to take the top spot.

Under our methodology, a bank that is wholly owned by its parent is ineligible. In Cambodia, ACLEDA is the new winner, as the incumbent, Advanced Bank of Asia, is a 100% owned subsidiary of National Bank of Canada.

Similarly, First Iraq Islamic Bank emerges as a new winner after S&P initiated coverage and incumbent Trade Bank of Iraq was downgraded by Fitch. Citing an improved strategic mandate that will contribute to United Arab Emirates’ economic transformation and a high level of implied government support, S&P upgraded Emirates Development Bank, helping it unseat First Abu Dhabi Bank as the safest in the UAE.

Stanbic Bank Kenya unseated KCB Bank Kenya (KCB). Fitch and Moody’s each downgraded KCB following a lowering of Kenya’s sovereign rating. Stanbic Bank Kenya is not rated by Moody’s and dodged a Fitch downgrade due to its 75% ownership by South Africa’s Standard Bank Group. Securing a new bank rating frequently provides a critical boost in our scoring model: Our winner in Ivory Coast, new entrant Banque Internationale, benefited from Fitch initiating rating coverage that began last December.

To be eligible for inclusion in Global Finance’s Safest Banks By Country, institutions must rank among the world’s largest 1,000 banks by assets and carry at least one long-term foreign currency deposit or debt rating from one of the three major rating agencies. Wholly owned subsidiaries are ineligible. Criteria are broader than for our global rankings, which require a position among the largest 500 banks and rating by at least two agencies.