China’s trade surplus hit a record high in 2024, a symbolically potent $1 trillion. The optics of that rounded-up figure—the exact number was $992.2 billion—dovetail neatly with US President Donald Trump’s pejorative rhetoric regarding China’s status as a trade creditor and his stated aim of using tariffs to reduce the US trade deficit.
Notably, Trump failed to mention China in his announcements about imminent tariff increases shortly after his January 20 inauguration, instead naming Canada and Mexico as subject to tariffs of up to 25% by February 1.
Meanwhile, China’s Vice Premier Ding Xuexiang said at the World Economic Forum in Davos, Switzerland: “We don’t seek [a] trade surplus. We want to import more competitive, quality products and services to promote balanced trade.”
Trump, for his part, reportedly told aides shortly before his inauguration that he wants to visit Beijing early in his term, suggesting the possibility of a deal between equals rather than unilateral action in the case of China.
China’s trade surplus has risen substantially since the Covid-19 pandemic, driven by a significant depreciation of the country’s real effective exchange rate, supporting export growth and depressing import demand.
“Macroeconomic factors are driving these external developments,” IMF economists wrote in a September note. “These include negative domestic demand shocks in China, due to the property market downturn and low household confidence, as well as a dissaving shock in the United States due to elevated government and personal spending.”
China’s December export growth confounded market expectations, surging 10.7% year-on-year via $335.6 billion of exports for a booming 5.9% full-year growth rate, according to data from Dutch bank ING. Exports to the US surged 15.6% in December to a 30-month high, driven in part by front-loading ahead of possible tariffs, while those to ASEAN countries powered up 18.9%.
With growth remaining strong in the US and ASEAN, demand for Chinese exports—which last year were dominated by ships (57.3%), semiconductors (17.4%), autos (15%), and household appliances (14.1%)—seems likely to persist.
