Insurers are reassessing traditional approaches to risk transfer—and the markets are responding.
The insurance industry is undergoing a structural realignment in its approach to risk capitalization and transfer. Emerging threats, ranging from climate and cyber perils to evolving macroeconomic pressures, are forcing carriers to rethink how they provide for anticipated risks. The result is a risk financing landscape that is evolving at an unprecedented pace.
A clear indicator of this shift is the growth in insurers’ investment in alternative capital. Aon Securities calculates that global alternative capital lept from $24 billion in 2010 to $115 billion in 2024: a clear sign of the industry’s pivot toward broader capital strategies. The cost of damage from systemic threats such as ransomware is forecast by Cybersecurity Ventures to exceed $275 billion a year by 2031. Reflecting the impact of climate change, global inflation-adjusted insured losses from natural catastrophes grew almost 6% a year between 1994 and 2023, according to Swiss Re.
Across the entire property and casualty (P&C) space, carriers are wrestling with the need to protect profitability and capital in the light of spiraling claims costs while keeping their product affordable. This is especially true in personal lines, says Sean O’Neill, head of Bain & Company’s global insurance practice.
“Commercial P&C carriers have benefited from a hard market [a period when premiums increase, coverage terms are restricted, and capacity for most types of insurance decreases] the past few years,” he notes, “and are now increasingly focused on managing through earnings volatility as the market softens. In life insurance, the issue is often more one of accessibility: how to increase relevance and make it easier for non-affluent customers to understand and buy the product.”
Carriers are increasingly turning to insurance-linked securities (ILS), including collateralized reinsurance and sidecars, to improve risk-adjusted returns and increase capacity.
“There will be more cyberrelated losses as the economy becomes increasingly connected.”
Sean O’Neill, Head of Global Insurance, Bain & Company
Capital Hits New Highs
These concerns are also visible in headline capital figures. According to Aon, global reinsurer capital reached a record $715 billion in 2024, driven by strong retained earnings and an expanding catastrophe bond market that saw outstanding bond limits grow to nearly $50 billion as of first-quarter 2025.
“Reinsurance capital continues to grow and keep pace with increasing demand,” observes George Attard, CEO, Reinsurance Solutions, Asia Pacific at Aon. “Heading into the mid-year renewals, we expect over $7.5 billion of additional US property catastrophe limit demand, mostly due to a healthier Florida market and the depopulation of the state windstorm insurer Citizens. We also anticipate some additional reinsurance purchasing from US national carriers looking to mitigate further major net losses during 2025.”
Available capital does not eliminate risk or uncertainty, however. Attard highlights the continuing impact of geopolitical and macroeconomic volatility on exposure modeling, inflation assumptions, and investment returns. Further, catastrophe losses during the remainder of 2025, including the Atlantic hurricane season, may yet impact future market conditions beyond the US.
Aon’s April 2025 Reinsurance Market Dynamics Report anticipates that this year is likely to record the highest firstquarter losses from natural catastrophes in over a decade. At between $11 billion and $17 billion, ceded losses from the Los Angeles wildfires have absorbed 25% to 33% of major reinsurers’ annual catastrophe allowances, which could affect how some come to the market at mid-year.
“June and July are key renewal dates for insurers in the US, Australia, and New Zealand, which along with Japan, are among the world’s largest markets for property catastrophe reinsurance,” the Aon report notes. Despite early-year losses, the broker expects broadly stable renewal dynamics, driven by continued capital inflows and unfulfilled reinsurer appetite.
Much of this capital flow is occurring through structured and alternative mechanisms. Growth in sidecar capital has contributed to broader buoyancy in the ILS market, with strong investor returns matched by persistent demand from originating insurers amid inflationary pressure and changing views of risk. Sidecars, however, are expected to post negative first quarter returns due to the Los Angeles wildfires.
New Structures For APAC
The Asia Pacific region represents a particular opportunity for capital innovation. With low insurance penetration and material catastrophe exposure, the region is attracting increasing policy support and capital interest. Aon’s April renewals report notes that Hong Kong and mainland China are actively promoting the catastrophe bond market and more sophisticated regional sponsors are exploring sidecar structures to access third-party capital. In 2021, Aon structured and placed a $30 million catastrophe bond for China Re, the first to be issued from a Hong Kong-based special-purpose insurer.
In parallel, facultative reinsurance—coverage purchased by a primary insurer to cover a single risk or block of risks—has grown markedly. Recent renewals in Asia-Pacific and elsewhere have seen oversubscription and improved pricing as both new entrants and incumbents expand their appetite. The market is experiencing active competition from London and Singapore, Aon suggests, alongside growing capacity from managing general agents, consortiums, and facilities. Aon’s own Marlin APAC facultative facility, launched recently, offers up to $15 million per risk and is targeted at property and renewable energy exposures in the region.
Parametric policies also continue to receive attention, although the size of the market remains limited.
“Despite its long history, parametric insurance has yet to reach any significant scale in the industry,” Bain’s O’Neill explains, adding that climate change and associated perils may boost demand and that AI could be a powerful catalyst.
“This construct has the simplicity of getting payments paid faster through a dramatically simplified claims process,” he says.
“AI has the potential to reduce basis risk, or the difference between the actual loss and the stipulated value rate in the parametric construct. The more data that can be ingested and managed by AI, combined with the declining cost and increased power of computing, the more the potential to increase the fidelity of the models that underlie a parametric policy.”
Cyber has similar loss-pattern challenges to those caused by climate, according to O’Neill: “There will be more cyber-related losses as the economy becomes increasingly connected; some will be small, some large, and the range of possibilities is endless.”
Capacity Is No Panacea
The industry’s pool of capital is growing alongside an even steeper escalation in underlying risks. Climate volatility, cyber threats, geopolitical instability, and inflationary uncertainty are all expanding in scale and complexity, and despite growing capital availability, fundamental challenges persist; chief among them, price-to-risk misalignment.
In some regions, particularly those exposed to flood or wildfire risk, O’Neill notes, homeowners are exiting the insurance system altogether, threatening to create “insurance deserts” with broader economic consequences including risk to mortgage-backed securities.
In certain flood- or fire-prone regions, and for specific perils like terrorism and cyber, greater collaboration between public entities and insurers may be needed in the future, he argues.
“Given the affordability and accessibility challenges across many jurisdictions, the increasing size of the protection gap, which is approaching $2 trillion, and the increasing role the insurance industry needs to play in prevention, greater collaboration between insurers and public entities will be required,” O’Neill explains. “Participants walk a fine line to get the right balance in publicprivate partnerships and matching price to risk, without increasing moral hazard into risk-taking by businesses or consumers.”
There are other fine lines to walk in the current environment, with geopolitical uncertainty a key risk vector. President Donald Trump’s trade and policy stance, for instance, may continue to significantly influence global risk transfer dynamics. To navigate these pressures, some insurers are pursuing mergers and acquisitions as a means of reshaping their capital and risk portfolios.
Says O’Neill, “As insurers contemplate the need for a broader range of scenarios given market uncertainty, we are seeing aggressive M&A moves to re-shape their portfolios, such as Japanese life [insurer] acquisitions in the US, increased tie-ups and scale building in asset management in the US and Europe, and greater activity by private equity-backed consolidators: especially in distribution and insurtech.”
