Elections in Mozambique have been marred by irregularities, disputed results, accusations of fraud, violent unrest, and assassinations. The pattern persisted with the October 9 balloting that saw Daniel Chapo elected president. This time, according to EU observers, the affair went beyond irregularities to “unjustified alteration” of results.
Chapo, the ruling party Frelimo’s candidate, carried the day and will replace Filipe Nyusi, who is stepping down after eight years in office. Frelimo, which has been in power since independence in 1975, has seemingly been blamedfor all the ills afflicting resource-rich Mozambique. Hailing from a new generation of leaders born after independence, Chapo has promised to delink from the past. However, few believe the former radio announcer and governor of Inhambane province will shake the old guard’s tight control of Frelimo.
He takes over a country endowed with bountiful resources but that remains in a state of socioeconomic paralysis. Of Mozambique’s population of 35 million, 65% live below the poverty line, up from 46% a decade ago.
Corruption and poverty are not its only chronic afflictions. A high unemployment rate, fragile security due to ongoing insurgencies, climate-related risks, and poor infrastructure keep Mozambique on the brink.
A silver lining is liquefied natural gas (LNG), which is fueling an economic transformation. Last year, Mozambique raked in $1.7 billion from LNG exports, up 218% from 2022. Foreign direct investment, mainly in the extractive sectors, is booming, with $650.5 million in new FDI was announced in the first quarter. “Mozambique’s economic outlook is improving due to a surge in LNG and other extractive revenue,” says Robert Besseling, CEO of risk and intelligence advisory Pangea-Risk. As it has after previous elections, Mozambique will bounce back, he predicts, as the destabilizing effects of the chaotic recent voting prove minimal.
