Last year, investment banks correctly predicted a boom in stock issuance. This year, a trade war threatens to end the rally.
Following two years of sticky inflation, exorbitant interest rates, and geopolitical tensions, worldwide equity issuance volume surged to $741 billion in 2024. That’s up 20% from the previous year. Global inflation eased and major central banks began to cut interest rates: encouraging developments for equity issuers and investors. As a result, 2024 was the strongest year for equity capital markets (ECM) in the past four, according to Dealogic.
The US, in particular, touted $366.7 billion in issuance; a 56% increase from 2023. Interestingly, India emerged as the top equities market in Asia-Pacific and the second-largest globally after the US, with ECM transactions totaling $69.4 billion. Volumes for the regions of Europe, the Middle East, and Africa (EMEA) rose 19.8% year-over-year to $156.5 billion from $130.7 billion in 2023. Asia-Pacific ECM issuance was down 7.9%, dampened by an 83% collapse in mainland China, underscoring the broader slowdown in the world’s second-largest economy.
For investment bankers, 2025 will likely offer a different scenario. Global equity markets face risks from the Trump administration’s proposed universal tariffs, which could disrupt global trade and corporate earnings. During Donald Trump’s first term as president, escalating US-China trade tensions led to a 15% decline in 2018 ECM volumes following a 20% rise in 2017.
Tariffs increase cost, reduce profit margins, and create market volatility. Additionally, protectionist policies may weaken investor sentiment, prompting capital outflows and reduced market liquidity. If the US’ trade partners answer Washington’s tariff moves with their own, global supply chains could be disrupted, further depressing equity-market performance and stalling initial public offerings (IPOs) and capital-raising activity.
Global
J.P. Morgan
In a year of sustained growth for global ECMs, total placements jumped year on year as much as 65%in North America, 107% in the Middle East and Africa, and 135% in India. Against this backdrop, J.P. Morgan’s historical leadership and global positioning enabled it to lead the field, with 11% of total revenues and 9.4% of volumes.
The bank also had a banner year in IPOs, jumping from 18th position in 2023 to lead the market in 2024 with 65 deals for a solid 5.6% share, according to Dealogic. Among its major deals, J.P. Morgan served as lead bookrunner on the $4.4 billion Lineage IPO on Nasdaq. —TM
Africa
Chapel Hill Denham
Banks in Nigeria have been facing statutory pressures to recapitalize. For a majority, the equities market has offered the easiest route. The result has been a flurry of activity, with Chapel Hill Denham the preferred agent for banks seeking to meet the higher minimum capital requirements through rights issues and public offerings. In 2024, the firm raised a cumulative $385 million for three commercial banks, cementing its leadership in the sector over the past 15 years. Among Capital Hill’s clients was Access Bank, for which it raised $234 million in a rights issue.
Chapel Hill’s role in building market liquidity, deepening investor participation, and reinforcing confidence in market resilience went beyond the banking sector as it notched $1.9 billion in total ECM transactions in 2024. Another standout deal was a $330 million rights issue for International Breweries, the largest in the history of Nigerian capital markets. The offering showcased the firm’s expertise in managing complex, high-stakes, multiple-stakeholder transactions. —JN
Asia-Pacific
DBS
DBS achieved milestones in 2024, reflecting its strategic focus and robust financial performance. The Singapore-based multinational increased its stake in its China securities joint venture from 51% to 91%. The move, pending approval, aligns with other foreign banks capitalizing on relaxed foreign ownership regulations in China.
DBS reported a 15% surge in third-quarter net profit to a record 3 billion Singapore dollars ($2.3 billion), driven by record fee income from wealth management, higher treasury customer sales, and increased trading volume. This highlights the bank’s ability to capitalize on market opportunities and deliver value to its stakeholders, positioning it for sustained growth and regional leadership. —LZ
Central And Eastern Europe
Bank Pekao
Bank Pekao stepped on the gas on both IPOs and financing deals in 2024, taking advantage of a solid year for Polish ECMs to post significant growth in all around. The bank participated in two of the region’s most important IPOs: the record-breaking $1.6 billion debut of convenience store chain Zabka in October, and homebuilder Murapol’s groundbreaking IPO, the first in Poland in nearly two years. The bank served as a global coordinator and bookrunner in the latter deal, helping break the long winter for the region’s IPOs. For Zabka, Bank Pekao served as joint bookrunner. It also arranged security payment orders for Creotech, a leading manufacturer of satellite systems and components, a deal that promises to boost the region’s competitiveness technology and defense. —TM
Latin America
Itaú BBA
With a commanding 41% share of equity deals in the region in 2024, Itaú BBA cemented its status as Latin America’s ECM leader. Navigating a difficult year for Brazilian equities, the bank guaranteed its leadership with participation in 12 of the region’s 29 deals, amassing a volume of approximately $540 million.
Among the bank’s most significant deals last year, it managed retail distribution for the $2.7 billion privatization of Sabesp, marking the largest sanitation offering in Brazil’s history and the third-largest worldwide in 2024. Additionally, Itaú BBA coordinated Mallplaza’s $325 million capital raise, efficiently handling the follow-on process as well as preferred rights periods and rump placements. —TM
Middle East
EFG Hermes
EFG Hermes was the Middle East’s top equity-deal bookrunner last year, closing 14 ECM transactions worth a collective $2.89 billion and participating in 11 IPOs valued at a total $1.7 billion.
The bank advised on the $375 million IPO of Spinneys, which operates premium grocery retail supermarkets throughout the United Arab Emirates and Oman, and has begun expanding into Saudi Arabia. The offering covered 25% of Spinneys’s total equity capital, implying a market capitalization of $1.5 billion. EFG Hermes also worked with healthcare conglomerate Fakeeh Care Group on its $764 million IPO. The deal, which was 119 times oversubscribed, implied a $3.6 billion market capitalization. EFG Hermes also advised on Almoosa Healthcare Company’s $449 million IPO on the Saudi Exchange. Almoosa Health was established in 1996 and is the first private hospital in Al-Ahsa Governorate. The offering for 30% of share capital was 103 times oversubscribed, establishing a $1.5 billion implied market capitalization. —AM
North America
Cantor Fitzgerald
Cantor Fitzgerald made significant strides in the equities market last year, showcasing the firm’s strength in executing high-profile IPOs and other equity transactions. Cantor served as a joint bookrunner on multiple IPOs, particularly in the biotech sector, including Bicara Therapeutics, a cancer-therapy developer, which raised $315 million in its initial offering for a valuation of approximately $881.4 million. Cantor also took part in Septerna’s IPO, which raised $288 million through the sale of 16 million shares of the biotechnology company at $18 each, for a valuation of some $970 million.
All told, Cantor was the year’s top joint bookrunner in the US, working on 17 equity deals totaling $3.3 billion in combined market value, according to Dealogic. The firm also expanded its footprint in filing for its 10th SPAC, Cantor Equity Partners I, which raised $200 million through a $10-per-share offering.
A key development in 2024 was the appointment of former chair and CEO Howard Lutnick as Secretary of Commerce in the second Trump administration. His influence could impact regulatory and trade policies that affect capital markets, possibly shaping Cantor’s strategic opportunities in the future. —AN
Western Europe
UBS
UBS significantly beefed up its already award-winning European-based ECM team in 2024, through a combination of senior-executive insertions from Credit Suisse—following UBS’ 2023 acquisition of that bank—and new top-level hires from other institutions including J.P. Morgan and Citibank grew 25% during the year in the EMEA region alone.
“We now have the size, capabilities, and talent to compete for tier 1 business in the US, similar to what we have historically done in Europe and Asia,” notes Gareth McCartney, global co-head of ECM.
The team responded by amassing an impressive $5.5 billion in ECM volume in Europe alone last year, according to Dealogic. Among its major transactions, UBS acted as joint global coordinator and bookrunner on Galderma’s 2.3 billion Swiss francs ($2.6 billion) IPO. The bank also completed the spinoff of Sandoz from pharmaceuticals giant Novartis, acting as lead financial adviser on a transaction that encompassed roughly $14 billion in enterprise value. —TM
Best Equity Banks 2025 | |
---|---|
Global | J.P. Morgan |
Africa | Chapel Hill Denham |
Asia-Pacific | DBS |
Central & Eastern Europe | Bank Pekao |
Latin America | Itaú BBA |
Middle East | EFG Hermes |
North America | Cantor Fitzgerald |
Western Europe | UBS |