Botswana, the world’s second largest diamond producer, ended 58 years of single-party dominance by the Botswana Democratic Party (BDP) last month, as incumbent President Mokgweetsi Masisi, who had served one term, conceded defeat, enabling a historic and peaceful transition of power to Duma Boko, a 54-year-old Harvard-educated human rights lawyer who leads the opposition Umbrella for Democratic Change (UDC).
The BDP suffered a crushing blow, winning just four of 61 National Assembly seats. Analysts cite mounting economic frustrations, especially among the young, as key to the party’s downfall.
Despite the political upheaval, Botswana—a nation the size of France but with a population of just over 2.4 million—remains a model of stability in Africa. Known for efficient governance, a well-functioning civil service, and prudent economic management, the country achieved upper-middle-income status in 2005, showcasing its resilience and progress.
Significant challenges persist. Poverty remains high, unemployment reached a staggering 27.6% in the first quarter of this year, and inequality levels are among the world’s worst. GDP growth is forecast at just 1% for 2024, down from 2.7% in 2023 and 5.5% in 2022. Driving the downturn is the contraction of the global diamond market, precipitated by reduced production and weakened demand, since diamonds account for 90% of Botswana’s foreign exchange earnings.
Fiscal expansion through government-backed construction projects is expected to cushion the downturn. Economically, Botswana ranked as Africa’s 28th-largest economy in 2023, with a GDP of approximately $21.4 billion. While modest compared to giants like Nigeria or South Africa, it stands out for its sound fiscal policies, strong governance, and strategic reliance on diamond exports.
Botswana’s eligibility for benefits under the African Growth and Opportunity Act (AGOA) has further bolstered its competitiveness, granting duty-free access to the US market for most locally manufactured goods, including diamonds. This has spurred business reforms, improved the investment climate, and strengthened bilateral trade ties. Botswana’s ability to navigate the current economic and social storms will determine its future stability and growth trajectory as it embarks on a new chapter in its politics under Boko’s leadership.
