Global central banks face inflation challenges in 2026 but disagree on the right approach. Global Finance reveals the 2025 Central Banker Report Cards in Africa.
ALGERIA | Salah Eddine Taleb: C-
Algeria, Africa’s largest country, recorded 3% growth in 2024, but its economy is expected to slow this year as lower natural gas prices and high public spending weigh on performance. Despite repeated calls from international institutions to diversify, the economy remains almost entirely dependent on hydrocarbons and largely closed to foreign investment. At the head of the Bank of Algeria (BoA), Governor Salah Eddine Taleb’s main mission is to ensure price stability in a market where most consumer goods are imported.
Last year, inflation dropped to 4%, down from 9.3% in 2023, but there is concern it could rise again this year. The BoA lowered its policy rate 25 basis points (bps) to 2.75% in August. The IMF, in its latest Article IV consultation, urged the regulator to maintain the monetary policy “focused on price stability”. The exchange rate is another major concern for Governor Taleb.
The Algerian dinar trades at roughly 60% discount on the black market, undermining trust in the national currency and discouraging deposits and investment. A situation that deteriorates year after year as the BoA’s foreign reserves decline, dropping to around $60 billion today from $200 billion a decade ago. Although the banking sector remains dominated by state-owned lenders, the 2023 Monetary and Banking Law introduced reforms aimed at expanding online, Islamic, and green finance. New frameworks were introduced this year to encourage private sector growth and digital banking. Still, progress was overshadowed by the FATF’s decision to add Algeria to its infamous grey list for money laundering in late 2024.
ANGOLA | Manuel António Tiago Dias: C-
In June, Manuel António Tiago Dias marked two years as governor of the National Bank of Angola (BNA). Over that period, the BNA has often conducted itself like an institution stuck in time. Focus has largely centered on tackling inflation, albeit with limited success. Tiago Dias’ initial months in office were characterized by hikes to the policy interest rate, hitting 19.5% in May of last year. The rate then remained unchanged for seven consecutive Monetary Policy Committee meetings, due to what it calls an “environment of uncertainty.” Last month, it stood at 19%.
While the BNA’s benchmark rate is among the highest in sub-Saharan Africa, inflation remains elevated; in July, it stood at 19.5%. Raising it further is not an option, given that Angola’s economy is back in the doldrums following stellar growth in 2024,
thanks to weak global demand for oil and low prices. The country is massively dependent on oil, which accounts for 94% of exports, 60% of fiscal revenues, and 25% of GDP.
In the current environment, growth is expected to plummet to 2.4% in 2025 from 4.4% last year, according to the International Monetary Fund (IMF). Aside from its inaction on monetary policy, the BNA is under fire for presiding over a shaky banking sector. The IMF has criticized the central bank for failing to rein in unsafe and unsound practices in the sector; two major banks are in the red, exposure to government debt has surged alarmingly, and nonperforming loans (NPLs) have soared.
BANK OF CENTRAL AFRICAN STATES (BEAC) | Yvon Sana Bangui: C-
The Bank of Central African States (BEAC) is facing a barrage of criticism over its foreign exchange regulations. One group of regulations, concerning the RES (Restoration of Extraction Sites) funds, requiring international oil companies to deposit $10 billion into BEAC accounts, was blasted by the African Energy Chamber as “absurd, opaque, and restrictive.”
In retaliation, two US lawmakers have introduced a bill in Congress to halt International Monetary Fund loans to Economic and Monetary Community of Central Africa (CEMAC) member states. Their main contention is that the BEAC intends to use the funds to shore up its reserves. To try and calm the storm, the bank eased dollar transfer rules in a June circular.
For BEAC Governor Yvon Sana Bangui, resolving the issue amicably is his biggest test yet. The bank’s reserves stood at $11.3 billion at the end of last year, equivalent to 4.2 months’ cover; the IMF recommends a minimum of five months.
The monetary policy side is proving an easier walk for Bangui. Declining inflation has provided the BEAC with headroom for policy easing; in March, it cut its main policy rate from 5% to 4.5%, the first such move since 2021. It maintained that level in September, citing low inflation that is expected to average just 2.8% in 2025. Nevertheless, the World Bank has warned that with growth set to average 2.9% in the medium term, CEMAC is walking a tightrope with respect to job creation and poverty reduction.
BOTSWANA | Cornelius Dekop: C+
Cornelius Dekop has faced his share of frustrations. Following a Monetary Policy Committee meeting in August, the Bank of Botswana (BoB) governor was at pains to make sense of skyrocketing costs of borrowing despite the BoB’s policy rate being among the lowest in Africa. The result is a biting liquidity squeeze occasioned by an economy experiencing its worst economic crisis since the 2020 pandemic.
Both the government and the International Monetary Fund project a 0.4% contraction this year, due to overdependence on the mining sector and specifically diamond exports, which contribute 30% of revenues and 75% of FX receipts. A prolonged downturn in the global diamond market has forced companies to slash production, the ripple effect being a nosedive in government revenues and related economic activity.
The BoB has acknowledged the mining slump’s impact on the financial system and the broader economy. With reserves plunging to record lows of $3.6 billion in April, Dekop and the BoB have little leeway to stimulate the economy. The central bank has maintained an accommodative monetary policy stance; in August, it kept its policy rate unchanged for the sixth meeting in a row at 1.9%. With the cost of borrowing already high, the BoB reckons that level is appropriate as inflation dropped to 1.1% in July, well below its target range of 3% to 6%.
CENTRAL BANK OF WEST AFRICAN STATES (BCEAO) | Jean-Claude Kassi Brou: B
The West African Economic and Monetary Union (WAEMU) is enjoying a period of tranquility. Burkina Faso, Mali, and Niger have made clear their dislike of France as guarantor of the CFA franc, and are are threatening to boycott Council of Ministers meetings since Burkina Faso was denied the rotating presidency in July.
But for BCEAO Governor Jean-Claude Kassi Brou, the fact that WAEMU remains intact is encouraging. To reinforce the glue, the BCEAO is turning innovative. On September 30, it launched a new payment system enabling real-time fund transfers. The Interoperable Instant Payment System Platform (PI-SPI) is a major milestone in modernizing the union’s financial system, coming as the bank is licensing more fintechs to offer digital payment services. The platform is also instrumental in firming up the CFA franc, which continues to attract criticism due to its links to the former colonial metropole. Its status will be further cemented as BCEAO finalizes its digital currency, the e-CFA.
The BCEAO has room to push the boundaries of innovation because the union’s macroeconomic fundamentals remain sound, enabling cuts to the benchmark policy rate. In June, the bank reduced its main lending rate by 25 basis points to 3.25% and has held its steady since then. With inflation forecast to average 2.2% this year, down from 3.5% in 2024, the BCEAO argues the cut is a safe move to stimulate economic activity. It projects GDP growth this year at 6.4%, driven by the extractive industries and the agricultural sector.
EGYPT | Hassan Abdalla: A-
Egypt’s economy is gaining momentum following last year’s more than $50 billion bailout. GDP growth is projected above 4%, up from 2.4% in 2024. Hassan Abdalla has served as governor of the Central Bank of Egypt (CBE) since 2022, navigating a particularly challenging environment. In March 2024, he took the cornerstone decision to float the pound. Despite a 40% devaluation, this move narrowed the gap with the black market, stabilized the exchange rate, and restored investor confidence.
Controlling inflation is a top priority in a country of over 110 million people where a third already live below the poverty line. In 2024, the consumer price index fell to 28.3% from 33.9% in 2023 and is expected to continue easing this year, with the CBE targeting 15%. As a result, Governor Abdalla has begun loosening monetary policy, cutting Egypt’s exceptionally high interest rates and bringing the lending rate to 23% and the deposit rate to 22% at the end of August.
Although some observers expected steeper cuts, the bank said it chose to act with caution. Overall, the financial sector is a dynamic one. Egyptian banks, among the largest in North Africa, are profitable, with several pursuing expansion in Africa and the GCC. In November 2024, the authorities sold 30% of United Bank—the first bank listing in 25 years and the first IPO since 2021. More capital markets operations are expected in the coming months. In early 2025, the CBE gave a green light for Emirates NBD, Dubai’s biggest lender, to acquire part of Banque du Caire. Digital transformation is also on top of Governor Abdalla’s agenda. Given Egypt’s demography, innovation is mainly focused on financial inclusion for now, but there is great potential for growth in other sectors. Climate change is another big topic in Cairo, where it only rains for two weeks per year on average. The CBE is committed to aligning its policies with climate necessities.
ETHIOPIA | Mamo Mihretu: A-
Mamo Mihretu abruptly resigned as governor of the National Bank of Ethiopia (NBE) last month. After only 32 months in office, Mihretu said only that he was leaving government to “pursue other passions and tackle other challenges.” Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed has since appointed Eyob Tekalign, who was the State Minister of Finance, to replace Mihretu.
Mihretu walks away with his head high, however. Just weeks earlier, on July 29, the central bank marked the one-year anniversary of a package of historic and far-reaching macroeconomic reforms, including changes to the monetary policy regime, open market operations, and foreign exchange rules. Of particular importance, the NBE officially commenced securities trading, including the first-ever listing of government treasury bills on the Ethiopian Securities Exchange, which was relaunched early in the year after a 50-year hiatus.
On the monetary side, the National Bank Rate has been instrumental in reining in inflation that had remained significantly high for years. After reaching a historic high of 15% in August of last year, the NBE has kept its benchmark interest rate unchanged. The effect has been a steady decline in inflation to 13.7% in July, down from 17.2% the same month last year. The central bank expects inflation to fall below 10% in the coming fiscal year, its lowest level in nearly a decade.
Another significant component of the reform package was the opening of the banking sector to foreign institutions. For the first time in five decades, foreign banks can apply for licenses to operate subsidiaries, open branches, or acquire stakes in local banks.
GAMBIA | Buah Saidy: C+
Buah Saidy likes to play it safe. As governor of the Central Bank of The Gambia (CBG), he has kept the benchmark interest rate unchanged at 17% for a record two years, and with no sign of easing. Behind this cautious stance is the CBG’s inability thus far to attain the right level of inflation, which has oscillated between single and double digits over the past 12 months. In January, inflation stood at 10.2%, but by July had declined to 7.2%. While recent disinflation aligns to near-term expectations, the CBG maintains that a tight monetary policy is still appropriate.
This stance is also helping keep the dalasi in check. In the first quarter, the local currency remained relatively stable, with a modest depreciation of 1.7%: a reassuring sign, given that the economy is growing and Gambia has thus far evaded Washington’s tariff hikes, which could have adversely impacted remittances and reserves.
In the first quarter, Gambia’s remittance inflows rose to $207.9 million, with the US accounting for 26.3%. At the end of May, foreign reserves stood at $508.5 million, equivalent to 4.6 months of import cover. With remittances flowing, coupled with increased earnings from tourism and growth in services, telecoms, and infrastructure, the CBG forecasts 6.5% GDP expansion this year, making Gambia one of the world’s fastest growing economies.
GHANA | Johnson Asiama: Too Early To Say
This month, Johnson Asiama marks eight months as governor of the Bank of Ghana (BoG): a period in which he has done seemingly everything in his power to prove he is on a mission. His first order of business was hiking the policy rate by 100 basis points to 28% in March to contain inflation that was running at 23.1% the previous month. In May, he left the rate unchanged, then called an emergency Monetary Policy Committee meeting in mid-July that again held steady.
The same month, at its regularly scheduled meeting, the committee cut the key interest rate by 300 basis points, to 25%; it was the largest reduction in the BoG’s history. In taking the decision, Asiama reckoned on a series of recent positive developments. Inflation declined to 12.1% in July, its lowest rate since December 2021. The local currency, the cedi, had appreciated 40.7% to July. And public debt had declined to 43.8% of GDP in June from 61.8% last December, driven by lower domestic borrowing and external debt restructuring. In September, accordingly, the BoG took the benchmark rate down again, by 350 basis points to 21.5%, again citing sustained disinflation.
Economic confidence, amidst these indicators, has been peaking. In the first quarter, GDP expanded by 5.3%. One area that remains of concern for Asiama, however, is the persistently high presence of non-performing loans in the banking sector, at a 23.6% ratio. The BoG has issued new regulatory notices to banks advising them to tackle the challenge.
KENYA | Kamau Thugge: A
In the tumultuous atmosphere of sub-Saharan Africa banking, Central Bank of Kenya (CBK) Governor Kamau Thugge is the epitome of calm.
Kenya is experiencing heightened political noise and civil arrests, amplified by out-of-control corruption and squeezed household budgets. While presidential elections are far off in 2027, an outsider might be forgiven for thinking the East Africa nation is gearing up for polls. Amidst the noise, Thugge has remained resolute in discharging his mandates.
In the monetary sphere, the past seven meetings have seen the CBK consistently cut its benchmark rate, which reached 9.75% in August, down from a 13% high in June of last year. The central bank then cut the rate by 25 basis points to 9.5%, noting that inflation remained within target at 4.1% in July, a slight increase from 3.8% the previous month.
Bolstering these decisions, economic statistics have been generally rosy. GDP grew by 4.9% in the first quarter and the CBK forecasts a 5.2% expansion on the year. Kenyans, however, continue to be disgruntled, as they do not perceive growth trickling down in the form of jobs, higher income, and real wealth. The CBK is trying to intervene, pushing banks to increase lending to key sectors, and credit to the private sector has increase from negative 2.9% in January to 3.3% in July. The CBK is also moving to strengthen the banking industry by increasing new minimum capital requirements for Tier 1 banks to $23.2 million and expand its footprint by lifting a 10-year moratorium on licensing of new banks.
MADAGASCAR | Aivo Andrianarivelo: C
Aivo Andrianarivelo’s focal point as governor of the Central Bank of Madagascar (BFM) has been preserving economic dynamism. The island nation’s fortunes have been a mixed bag. After a sluggish start to the year, economic activity recovered in the second quarter, driven by the tertiary sector.
Even after notching 4.3% GDP growth in the first quarter of 2025, however, uncertainty lingers. Madagascar was slapped with a 15% tariff by the US in April, leaving the critical textile and vanilla export industries vulnerable. Last year, the country shipped goods valued at $733 million to the US; going forward, exports could slump substantially. Probable ripple effects include massive job losses, particularly in the garments industry, which accounts for about one-fifth of GDP.
The BFM has adopted a restrictive monetary policy stance. In May, it raised its benchmark interest rate by 150 basis points to 12%, then kept it unchanged in August. The hope is that the higher rate will consolidate a process of declining inflation, which stood at 8.2% in June. For the year, it is expected to average 8.4%, a level the BFM argues is not conducive to macroeconomic stability.
The local currency, the ariary, is not giving the BFM much pain, by contrast. After depreciating 6.5% in 2024, it has stabilized, driven by FDIs inflows. The inflows have boosted central bank reserves to $3 billion. Meanwhile, the BFM has embarked on a pilot program for its digital currency, the e-ariary, which it hopes to launch in the coming months.
MAURITANIA | Mohamed Lemine Ould Dhehbi: C
After posting stellar 6.4% and 5.2% GDP growth in 2023 and 2024, respectively, Mauritania’s economy is slowing; this year, the International Monetary Fund forecasts a 4% expansion.
For the Central Bank of Mauritania (BCM), this is no cause for alarm. Granted, economic risks abound, mainly external, relating to global uncertainties and insecurity in the Sahel region. Climaterelated shocks also pose threats. Internally, however, most macroeconomic fundamentals are ticking the right boxes. Inflation has remained within the central bank’s acceptable band range for an extended period, although it increased slightly to 1.3% in July from 0.60% in June. With the BCM continuing reforms to deepen the FX market, the local currency, the puguiya, remains largely stable.
These fundamentals give the BCM room to lower interest rates as it transitions its monetary policy focus from quantitative liquidity management to interest rate targeting. In May, it reduced its policy rate from 6.75% to 6.5% and in August, it affected another 50-basispoint-cut to 6%. The BCM is hoping the cuts will keep economic activity vibrant, in particular increasing credit to the critical mining, agricultural, fisheries, and construction sectors.
Mauritania is also looking forward to a petrodollar bonanza since natural gas production from the Greater Tortue Ahmeyim project began. In the banking sector, the BCM has been imposing fines on banks flouting prudential regulations and has overseen an amendment to banking laws to legally force the liquidation and resolution of troubled banks.
MAURITIUS | Priscilla Muthoora Thakoor: Too Early To Say
After a landslide victory in November, Prime Minister Navinchandra Ramgoolam replaced the governor of the Bank of Mauritius (BoM); taking over was Rama Krishna Sithanen, a protégé and former finance minister and deputy prime minister. Since then, the BoM’s credibility has come under scrutiny, exacerbated by a fallout between Sithanen and one of his deputies, Gerard Sanspeur. In late August, Sanspeur resigned, citing “external influence,” ostensibly from Sithanen’s son. The central bank gave no reasons for Sanspeur’s departure. The crisis engulfing BoM took a turn in September after Ramgoolam had Sithanen resign and appointed Priscilla Muthoora Thakoor as the new governor, who began her three-year term on Sept. 29.
The murky conflicts cast doubt not only on the BoM’s abilities to discharge its mandate but on Mauritius’ reputation as an international financial center. The loss of trust and confidence is coming at the worst of moment for an economy in trouble. External shocks, drought, a decline in tourism, and a plunge in FDI, accompany a public debt equaling 88% of GDP, and civil unrest following the government’s decision to raise the pension age from 60 to 65.
Given the deteriorating fiscal and economic picture, the BoM is projecting GDP growth closer to the lower end of its forecast range at 3%. And with the key rate unchanged at 4.5% in August, headline inflation is injecting further pain; after declining to 2.5% in March, its lowest level since June 2021, it hit 3.1% in July.
MOROCCO | Abdellatif Jouahri: A
Morocco is the economic driving force of North Africa, with GDP projected to expand by 3.8% this year. Inflation has eased significantly from a peak of 6.7% in 2022 to around 2%. With price stability restored, Bank Al-Maghrib (BAM) began easing the monetary policy in mid-2024, cutting the benchmark policy rate three times to reach 2.25% in March 2025. While inflation is broadly under control, risks remain. “The central bank will need to remain vigilant and maintain a data-dependent approach,” the OECD warns, citing global trade tensions that could pressure prices.
For decades now, Morocco’s economic trajectory has been underpinned by a clear reform agenda and infrastructure investments that have improved the business climate and attracted robust FDI, particularly in aeronautics, agri-food, and textiles.
The banking sector also acts like a regional magnet. In 2024, Moroccan banks have shown strong profitability with a 13.2% increase in net banking income and credit growth at 6%-7%. However, nonperforming loans (NPLs) have doubled in the last decade to reach 8.6% of total credit volume. The introduction of a secondary market for NPLs could “provide a significant boost to banks’ credit performance and core capital metrics,” comments ratings agency Fitch.
The financial sector typically approaches innovation and new technologies with caution. Still, in January, the opening of the Morocco Fintech Centre at the BAM’s headquarters marked a milestone, with Governor Abdellatif Jouahri calling for greater international and regional cooperation on digital finance. With global warming posing growing challenges to Morocco’s economy, BAM has also emerged as a pioneer in integrating climate risk into its forecasting and policy design.
MOZAMBIQUE | Rogério Lucas Zandamela: B
Following a bitterly disputed election marked by violence a year ago, Mozambique has experienced a return to relative political stability, and the economy is feeling the gains. The southern African nation is witnessing a steady recovery in the wake of a sharp slowdown between October of last year and March. GDP growth is projected to average 2.5% in 2025, according to the International Monetary Fund.
Those positive numbers provide headroom for policy easing by the Bank of Mozambique (BM). Since it initiated a loosening cycle in January 2024, the central bank has cut its key MIMO lending rate a cumulative 700 basis points. The latest came in July, when the BM dropped the benchmark rate 75 basis points to 10.25%. Inflation has nevertheless remained well anchored in the mid-single digits; in August, it increased to 4.7% from 3.9% in July.
The local currency, the metical, is also holding to its status among the most stable currencies in Africa, boosted by natural gas revenues that stood at $91.8 million last year. Ironically, while reserves have hit a four-year high, rising to $3.9 billion in June, Mozambique is grappling with a biting foreign exchange shortage. President Daniel Chapo has blamed banks and businesses for hoarding and is pushing the BM to address the crisis. It has responded in part by easing reserve requirements.
Apart from the FX challenge, Mozambique’s relationship with the International Monetary Fund is tense. In late August, an IMF team completed a visit to the country with hopes of resolving a deadlock on a new financing package.
NAMIBIA | Johannes Gawaxab: B
In March, Netumbo Nandi-Ndaitwah was sworn in as Namibia’s new president, making her the country’s first female head of state. In her inauguration speech, she promised economic diversification, easing the country’s overreliance on the slumping mining sector.
Falling global diamond prices have led to a drastic decline in earnings. Data from the Bank of Namibia (BoN) show that diamond revenues plunged 32.9% to $672 million last year, down from $984 million in 2023. Given that diamonds contribute roughly 10% of GDP and over one-fifth of export revenues, BoN Governor Johannes !Gawaxab warned the situation could get worse after the US slapped Namibian exports with a 15% tariff.
This could adversely impact the central bank’s already squeezed reserves. At the end of July, reserves stood at $3.2 billion, equivalent to 3.8 months import cover. While !Gawaxab has no control over external shocks such as these, he has deployed the BoN’s tools to stimulate activity in other sectors including tourism, trade, transport, and communication.
Meanwhile, the central bank has adopted a cautious monetary policy. After cutting the repo rate to 6.75% in February, the BoN has kept that level unchanged in subsequent meetings. With privatesector credit increasing to 5.7% in June compared to 4.5% in April, the lower repo rate is considered appropriate to safeguard the peg between the Namibian dollar and the South African rand. It is also keeping the lid on inflation, which has averaged 3.6% this year.
NIGERIA | Olayemi Cardoso: B-
After prolonged turbulence, Nigeria’s macroeconomic fundamentals are stabilizing—but not fast enough to satisfy Olayemi Cardoso, governor of the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN).
Last month, the annual inflation rate stood at 20.12%, a substantial decline from 33.4% the same month last year. But the CBN is not showing signs of easing up on monetary policy. The central bank lowered its benchmark rate by 50 basis points to 27% last month, after having held it at 27.5% for three consecutive meetings. The goal is to sustain the downward momentum.
The CBN considers this prudent in a booming economy driven by FX market stability, rising inflows on ballooning remittances, increased oil production, and rising non-oil exports. Remittances have recently averaged $600 million a month. Together, the inflows have caused central bank reserves to skyrocket, reaching $40.1 billion in July and representing about 9.5 months of import cover.
While insecurity and sluggishness in the agricultural sector could impact growth, Nigeria is expecting 3.4% GDP growth this year, according to CBN. Confidence in the economy has also helped Nigeria stage a comeback in the global markets, raising $2.2 billion in its first eurobond issuance since 2022.
The CBN is keeping an eye on the banking sector, pushing banks to recapitalize. At least eight banks have met the new minimum core capital requirements while others are making progress toward meeting the March 2026 deadline. Several troubled banks have been put under special supervisory regime and one license has been revoked.
NIGERIA | Olayemi Cardoso: B-
After prolonged turbulence, Nigeria’s macroeconomic fundamentals are stabilizing—but not fast enough to satisfy Olayemi Cardoso, governor of the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN).
Last month, the annual inflation rate stood at 20.12%, a substantial decline from 33.4% the same month last year. But the CBN is not showing signs of easing up on monetary policy. The central bank lowered its benchmark rate by 50 basis points to 27% last month, after having held it at 27.5% for three consecutive meetings. The goal is to sustain the downward momentum.
The CBN considers this prudent in a booming economy driven by FX market stability, rising inflows on ballooning remittances, increased oil production, and rising non-oil exports. Remittances have recently averaged $600 million a month. Together, the inflows have caused central bank reserves to skyrocket, reaching $40.1 billion in July and representing about 9.5 months of import cover.
While insecurity and sluggishness in the agricultural sector could impact growth, Nigeria is expecting 3.4% GDP growth this year, according to CBN. Confidence in the economy has also helped Nigeria stage a comeback in the global markets, raising $2.2 billion in its first eurobond issuance since 2022.
The CBN is keeping an eye on the banking sector, pushing banks to recapitalize. At least eight banks have met the new minimum core capital requirements while others are making progress toward meeting the March 2026 deadline. Several troubled banks have been put under special supervisory regime and one license has been revoked.
RWANDA | Soraya Hakuziyaremye: Too Early To Say
When Soraya Hakuziyaremye was appointed governor of the National Bank of Rwanda (NBR) in February, she stepped into the very large boots of John Rwangombwa, who was ending a 12-year run as head of the central bank. Hakuziyaremye is in familiar territory, however. A career banker who had spent years in western capitals and a former trade and industry minister, she joined the NBR in March 2021 as deputy governor. As a loyalist of longtime President Paul Kagame, however, the jury is out on whether Hakuziyaremye will continue the tradition of safeguarding the central bank’s autonomy.
At the helm, she has her work cut out. Inflation stood at 3.8% in February and an upswing raised it to 7.3% in July, forcing action by the central bank. Having initially kept its policy rate unchanged at 6.5% since last November, the BNR surprised the markets with a 25-basis-point boost to 6.75% in August. The bank contends the hike is necessary to ensure inflation remains within its target range.
Rwanda continues to be one of the fastest growing economies in the world. Following a 7.8% expansion in the first quarter, the International Monetary Fund projects 7.1% GDP growth for the year, driven by agriculture, services, construction, and infrastructure investments.
The Rwandan franc, however, remains a source of concern. Last year, the currency depreciated by 16%. By the end of June of this year, it had lost another 2.96% in value, resulting in increased informal dollarization of the economy. To arrest the situation, the NBR has banned unauthorized use of foreign currencies in local transactions.
SOUTH AFRICA | Lesetja Kganyago: A-
South African Reserve Bank (SARB) Governor Lesetja Kganyago is pressing for sub-Saharan Africa’s biggest economy to change its inflation target range. Currently at 3% to 6%, Kganyago is advocating a lower limit of 3%, which he argues will make the country more competitive.
By the look of things, he is on the verge of having his way. A 3% limit would create space for lower interest rates, strengthening the rand, and reducing long-term borrowing costs, all of which would augur well for an economy in a state of paralysis and facing additional uncertainties since the US imposed a 30% tariff on South African goods in August. Growth in the first quarter was a paltry 0.1% and for the year, is projected at less than 1%.
Business and consumer confidence is at its lowest and foreign investors have taken flight, selling $6.2 billion worth of stocks. Stress tests on seven banks, meanwhile, have exposed shortfalls in liquidity buffer rules.
Amidst the gloom, the SARB cut its benchmark lending rate at four consecutive meetings. The latest was in August, when it lowered the key repo rate 25 basis points to 7%, which the central bank justified due to moderating inflation—in July, it stood at 3.5%—and a stronger rand. The SARB then maintained the 7% rate in September. Another positive: South Africa stands to be removed from the Financial Action Task Force grey list this month after completing anti-money laundering and counter-terrorism financing reforms.
TANZANIA | Emmanuel Tutuba: B
Tanzania, which critics say has sunk into authoritarianism under President Samia Suluhu Hassan, goes to the polls this month. With the main opposition party, Chadema, disqualified from elections and its leader, Tundu Lissu, facing treason charges, Suluhu expects an easy run to victory.
The political tensions are casting dark clouds on Tanzania, one of Africa’s most stable countries, whose economy has been booming. But political spillover has been minimal. Last year, the East African nation recorded GDP growth of 5.5%. This year, the forecast is for further acceleration to about 6%, driven by agriculture, construction, and financial services.
That record of growth, even as inflation remains within its target band, has prompted the Bank of Tanzania (BoT) to embark on monetary easing. After leaving its benchmark interest rate unchanged at 6% for four previous meetings, the central bank made a 25-basispoint cut to 5.75% in June. BoT considers the move prudent with inflation averaging 3.2% in the second quarter and 3.3% in July.
The Tanzanian shilling remains stable, having depreciated at just 0.2% in the year ended in June compared to 12.5% in the 12 months ended in June of last year. As part of its mandate, the BoT prohibits the use of foreign currencies for local transactions and payments. It is also registering a deepening of financial inclusion, driven by agency and digital banking and diversification of financial products.
TUNISIA | Fethi Zouhair Nouri: D
Tunisia’s economy is forecast to grow 1.9% in 2025, following a sluggish 1.6% in 2024. For years, the country has been trapped in a multifaceted crisis marked by a high fiscal deficit, external funding gaps, inflation, and unemployment. Public debt has surged from 67% of GDP to 81% over the past five years. Yet, the authorities refuse to implement the reform agenda needed to unlock international support.
Since taking office in February last year, Governor Fethi Zouhair Nouri’s priority has been price stability. Inflation fell to 7% in 2024 from 9.3% in 2023; however, purchasing power remains a significant concern for most Tunisians. The Banque Centrale de Tunisie (BCT) responded with a modest policy rate cut from 8% to 7.5% in March.
A former economics professor and BCT board member since 2016. Nouri faces not only an acute economic crisis but also a structural challenge: the erosion of central bank independence. In 2024, as Tunisia neared default, Parliament authorized the BCT to lend $2.2 billion interest-free to the treasury. Observers criticized the move as a forced bailout that merely postponed an inevitable financial collapse. They warned it would damage investor confidence and the BCT’s reputation. Despite criticism, President Kais Saied later declared he wished to revise the regulator’s mandate permanently.
With international reform efforts stalled and access to global markets virtually cut off, Tunisia increasingly depends on bilateral aid from wealthy Gulf allies, deepening its financial isolation and complicating prospects for recovery.
UGANDA | Michael Atingi-Ego: A-
After serving the Bank of Uganda (BoU) as deputy governor for four years, Michael Atingi-Ego was named governor in February. By and large, Atingi-Ego has kept the BoU’s wheels running smoothly, including shielding the bank from political influence and helping the Ugandan economy continue on a growth trajectory.
This year, the government is projecting GDP growth reaching 6.5%. However, elevated uncertainty due to external factors is promoting the BoU to take a cautious monetary course. In August, it maintained its policy rate unchanged at 9.75% for the fourth consecutive meeting as inflation shows signs of upswing. In July, inflation stood at 3.8%, but projections by BoU show it averaging between 4.5% and 4.8% for the current fiscal year.
The BoU contends this does not warrant alarm, more so since the Ugandan shilling remains the most stable currency in Africa, according to the International Monetary Fund. After a sluggish first quarter, Uganda is recording a recovery in private-sector credit and a decline in non-performing loans. Additional good news was the World Bank’s decision to lift a ban on lending to the country, imposed two years ago following enactment of a controversial anti-homosexuality law. The only blip on the horizon is a standoff with the IMF over a new financing program.
ZAMBIA | Denny H. Kalyalya: B-
The Bank of Zambia (BoZ) is crafting new currency regulations aimed at ending the dollarization of the economy and restoring the kwacha as the sole legal tender. After becoming nearly valueless due to unprecedented depreciation, the kwacha has recovered, appreciating by 14.4% in the second quarter thanks to growing FX inflows and a rebounding economy.
That stands as one reason BoZ Governor Denny H. Kalyalya wants to wind down the use of foreign currencies for local transactions. Another is inflation. Due to a tight monetary policy, Zambia is recording a steady decline in inflationary pressures. In February, the BoZ hiked its policy interest rate by 50 basis points to 14.5%; since then, it has remained unchanged. The effect has been a decline in inflation to 13% in July from 14.1% in June. The goal is to steer inflation toward the central bank’s 6%-to-8% target range.
The BoZ contends this is critical to sustain economic recovery. With international copper prices skyrocketing, tourist numbers increasing, electricity generation stabilizing after a period of load shedding, and key sectors booming, GDP growth is expected to accelerate to 5.8% this year, up from 4% in 2024. However, the central bank is keeping an eye on a slowdown in credit, which declined to 12.7% in June from 15.3% in March, heavily impacting midsized and small enterprises.
ZIMBABWE | John Mushayavanhu: C+
Zimbabwe is enjoying the end of an era of hyperinflation, for which the Reserve Bank of Zimbabwe (RBZ), with its tight monetary policy stance and “walk the talk, stay the course” mantra, is taking much of the credit. In effect, the RBZ has kept its benchmark rate unchanged at 35% since September of last year—the highest in Africa—in the face of annual inflation that stood at 95.8% in July. The RBZ projects significant easing in the coming months.
The central bank is also becoming bolder in its efforts to end dollarization of the economy. It has set a 2030 deadline to ensure the gold-back ZiG becomes the sole currency; banks are therefore being directed to increase access through ATMs and branches. This is pushing up usage, with the proportion of ZiG in the national payment system’s electronic transactions rising to 40% in June from 26% in April.
A key contributor is the fact that the ZiG has remained stable, supported by sustained FX inflows from export earnings and remittances. The impact on reserves has also been significant as they grew over 150% from $285 million in April of last year to over $730 million in June. The stable conditions are being felt in the economy as key sectors like agricultural, mining, manufacturing, and tourism rebound. The RBZ projects the economy will grow 6% in 2025 compared to 1.7% in 2024.