Tariffs, Contagion And The Fall Agenda

August has always been a tricky month for the world economy. While most of the West—particularly Europe—takes some vacation, financial and currency markets experience strong volatility, often reacting disproportionally to events. Lower trading volumes and the general quiet tend to magnify the news that does come out.

This summer-—the ten-year anniversary of Lehman Brothers’ collapse—trade tensions, currency volatility and fear of contagion between different markets were leading topics, with the news leaving a strong uncertainty about what autumn may bring, given the growing list of global issues that require the attention of governments, regulators and financial institutions. Some wonder if the trade tensions between the US and China or Turkey will force some western economies into a recession next year. Others fear the weakness of key emerging markets economies, and the possibility of a regional or, worse yet, global crisis.

As we have no crystal ball in which to see the future, we have no answers, only a long list of questions. Asking them at the right time, as we do in the cover story on the effect of the oil price increases, might help our readers prepare for potential consequences. Our spotlight on corporate hedging strategies shows a range of approaches—and results.

In this issue we also present the first winners—country and regional-level prizes—of our annual Digital Bank Awards. It is an area where growth and innovation still dominate worldwide, in part for necessity and in part for the many applications that new technology has brought and will bring to financial institutions. It is also a confirmation that in every economic climate there are always some winners. Regardless of conditions, there are always those—companies, countries, individuals—that outperform.

Andrea Fiano | Editor
afiano@gfmag.com