Countries With Lowest GDP Growth 2024

After recessions, economies often bounce back more vigorously than ever—unless they stumble across new obstacles along their way.


Before the Russian invasion of Ukraine, the global economy was set for the fastest post-recession recovery since World War II. The pandemic had shuttered businesses, halted travels and left supply chains in disarray. The recovery was uneven across countries and regions but, as it often happens after deep recessions, it was strong: following a drop of 3% in 2020 and a bounce-back of 6.1% in 2021, late the same year the International Monetary Fund (IMF) was estimating global growth to continue strengthening by 4.9% in 2022.

The invasion of Ukraine began in February 2022 changed that. Less than two months later, in its World Economic Outlook April’s report, the Fund was reducing its previous forecast by 1.3% points to 3.6% for the ongoing year (with downgrades for 143 countries) and the following. When the actual numbers came in, growth proved even lower than those estimates: it stood at 3.4% in 2022 and 3.2% in 2023, and it is now forecasted to expand at the same pace this year and the next, below pre-pandemic levels.

Many Small Emerging Nations Are Among The Fastest-Growing Economies In The World

Granted, even before Ukraine, the world’s economy was still grappling with the effects of the pandemic and other numerous preexisting conditions—accelerated inflation, lingering lockdowns and bottlenecks in global supply chains, rising geo-geopolitical fragmentation, climate change impacts, to name a few. Yet, while the impact of each of these components has fluctuated one way or the other over time, the recipe for sluggish economic growth has largely stayed the same.

It almost comes naturally to think that negative and slow growth are maladies more likely to affect the smallest and most fragile global players. In reality, it is often the opposite: not only many small emerging nations do rank among the fastest-growing economies in the world, but among those countries that in recent years have experienced slow or near-zero expansion one can find most Mediterranean EU members, as well well-oiled economic machines—to the surprise of some—such as Germany, Netherlands, Sweden, Finland. Remarkably, according to the IMF, roughly 60% of global economic growth will come this year from the Asian continent, with countries like Malaysia and China projected to expand by more than 4%, Indonesia, Bangladesh and Vietnam by about 5% or more, and Philippines, Mongolia and India growing more than 6%.

These economies will rise precisely because there is more room for growth compared to already mature and developed countries—they boast a younger population, they are improving their infrastructure, they are attracting new investments. 

Still, other emerging and frontier markets—especially those that are still bearing the brunt of higher food and fuel costs—will fare much worse. For them, the challenges of the current multi-faceted crisis are the most severe, and include increased fiscal strain, collapse in internal and external demand, political instability. These nations are enduring a deep, long-lasting downturn that has the potential to halt or reverse hard-fought gains made over the past decades.

Contrary To Proverbial Wisdom War Is Bad For Business

Covid-19 triggered the first increase in global poverty in more than two decades; rising inflation and the effects of the war in Ukraine have only made things harder; the Israel-Gaza conflict now threatens to slow down growth and investments throughout the entire region.

But what about those nations directly involved in a conflict? War, contrary to proverbial wisdom, is generally bad for business. While Ukraine has been experiencing a moderate rebound after the economy sank almost 30% in 2022, for the West Bank and Gaza and countries marred by conflict and violence such as Syria, Eritrea and Afghanistan the financial and political situation is so bleak and uncertain that the IMF excludes them entirely from its economic projections.

Country 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 Five-Year Avg.
Sudan -3.63 0.5 -2.5 -18.3 -4.201 -5.6262
Haiti -3.343 -1.798 -1.682 -1.864 -3 -2.3374
Argentina -9.9 10.718 4.956 -1.569 -2.764 0.2882
Kuwait -5.274 1.698 6.138 -2.231 -1.437 -0.2212
Yemen -8.5 -1 1.5 -2 -1 -2.2
Estonia -0.965 7.249 -0.461 -3.006 -0.528 0.4578
Puerto Rico -4.186 0.412 3.207 -0.7 -0.2 -0.2934
Ecuador -9.245 9.818 6.186 2.284 0.081 1.8248
Germany -3.829 3.169 1.804 -0.305 0.15 0.1978
Sweden -2.17 6.147 2.663 -0.196 0.215 1.3318
Finland -2.355 2.838 1.335 -0.957 0.422 0.2566
Austria -6.633 4.238 4.806 -0.746 0.435 0.42
United Kingdom -10.36 8.675 4.345 0.145 0.46 0.653
Equatorial Guinea -4.788 -0.377 3.246 -5.947 0.467 -1.4798
Netherlands -3.885 6.192 4.326 0.093 0.632 1.4716
Czech Republic -5.503 3.553 2.328 -0.405 0.656 0.1258
Italy -8.974 8.31 3.986 0.921 0.709 0.9904
France -7.54 6.321 2.526 0.869 0.744 0.584
Japan -4.147 2.559 0.957 1.923 0.855 0.4294
South Africa -5.963 4.703 1.91 0.602 0.879 0.4262
New Zealand -1.37 5.628 2.384 0.633 1.047 1.6644
Micronesia -1.87 3.013 -0.864 0.766 1.052 0.4194
Aruba -23.98 27.639 10.458 5.3 1.1 4.1028
Colombia -7.186 10.801 7.289 0.612 1.14 2.5312
Canada -5.038 5.287 3.82 1.066 1.154 1.2578
Belgium -5.261 6.851 3.01 1.461 1.158 1.4438
Oman -3.378 3.092 4.311 1.311 1.194 1.306
Luxembourg -0.91 7.169 1.38 -1.095 1.262 1.5612
Central African Republic 0.959 0.983 0.472 0.727 1.269 0.882
San Marino -6.812 14.228 5.037 2.304 1.3 3.2114
Switzerland -2.272 5.397 2.666 0.764 1.341 1.5792
Iraq -12.06 1.58 6.983 -2.176 1.377 -0.8582
Australia -2.129 5.554 3.811 2.063 1.461 2.152
Ireland 6.617 15.125 9.433 -3.199 1.466 5.8884
Myanmar -1.2 -10.486 -3.965 2.546 1.501 -2.3208
Norway -1.278 3.909 3.006 0.514 1.525 1.5352
Nauru 1.982 7.207 2.841 0.596 1.576 2.8404
Bolivia -8.738 6.111 3.606 2.5 1.6 1.0158
Israel -1.465 9.344 6.47 2.003 1.609 3.5922
Latvia -3.514 6.732 2.955 -0.306 1.659 1.5052
Portugal -8.301 5.737 6.828 2.28 1.732 1.6552
Iceland -6.94 5.149 8.881 4.064 1.741 2.579
Andorra -11.18 8.287 9.565 2.275 1.8 2.1486
Jamaica -9.92 4.601 5.222 2.2 1.8 0.7806
Tunisia -8.592 4.605 2.603 0.425 1.878 0.1838
Spain -11.17 6.4 5.771 2.501 1.897 1.0808
Chile -6.143 11.334 2.059 0.219 1.983 1.8904
Qatar -3.558 1.627 4.2 1.558 1.994 1.1642
Pakistan -0.943 5.77 6.169 -0.166 2 2.566
Slovenia -4.241 8.229 2.461 1.587 2.01 2.0092
Greece -9.316 8.38 5.557 2.011 2.038 1.734
Slovak Republic -3.335 4.789 1.75 1.15 2.077 1.2862
Singapore -3.87 9.691 3.838 1.075 2.1 2.5668
Denmark -2.423 6.845 2.731 1.813 2.13 2.2192
Brazil -3.277 4.763 3.017 2.908 2.154 1.913
Hungary -4.536 7.086 4.555 -0.908 2.203 1.68
Lithuania -0.025 6.285 2.44 -0.343 2.209 2.1132
Turkmenistan -2.116 -0.338 5.315 1.954 2.293 1.4216
The Bahamas -23.51 16.985 14.369 4.304 2.299 2.8898
Korea -0.709 4.305 2.613 1.357 2.322 1.9776
Trinidad and Tobago -9.078 -1.037 1.482 2.103 2.363 -0.8334
Mexico -8.625 5.739 3.949 3.229 2.367 1.3318
Solomon Islands -3.383 2.564 2.403 2.95 2.372 1.3812
Lesotho -5.303 1.7 1.6 1.877 2.378 0.4504
Brunei Darussalam 1.134 -1.591 -1.628 1.407 2.385 0.3414
Belarus -0.673 2.439 -4.698 3.882 2.401 0.6702
St. Lucia -23.59 11.315 15.674 3.023 2.442 1.7736
Bosnia and Herzegovina -3.015 7.392 4.227 1.8 2.5 2.5808
Panama -17.67 15.836 10.809 7.317 2.5 3.7588
Tonga 0.489 -2.667 -1.962 2.558 2.524 0.1884
Peru -10.87 13.418 2.684 -0.552 2.538 1.4438
Saudi Arabia -3.582 5.075 7.486 -0.755 2.554 2.1556
Angola -5.638 1.199 3.045 0.47 2.558 0.3268
Jordan -1.103 3.656 2.428 2.6 2.6 2.0362
Moldova -8.3 13.9 -4.982 1.032 2.6 0.85
Namibia -8.101 3.525 4.56 3.154 2.65 1.1576
Cyprus -3.443 9.91 5.059 2.46 2.689 3.335
North Macedonia -4.688 4.511 2.221 1.027 2.7 1.1542
Thailand -6.05 1.549 2.511 1.872 2.7 0.5164
United States -2.214 5.8 1.936 2.531 2.725 2.1556
Bulgaria -3.966 7.662 3.926 1.846 2.737 2.441
Azerbaijan -4.199 5.616 4.577 1.1 2.764 1.9716
Romania -3.677 5.709 4.595 2.11 2.771 2.3016
Ghana 0.514 5.076 3.078 2.259 2.779 2.7412
Hong Kong SAR -6.545 6.454 -3.681 3.215 2.879 0.4644
São Tomé and Principe 2.625 1.899 0.065 -0.3 2.9 1.4378
Gabon -1.815 1.468 3.037 2.266 2.902 1.5716
Chad -2.053 -0.914 3.075 4.369 2.912 1.4778
Suriname -15.98 -2.435 2.434 2.148 2.962 -2.1732
Egypt 3.573 3.253 6.653 3.76 2.966 4.041
Vanuatu -4.992 -1.552 1.915 2.214 2.968 0.1106
Croatia -8.591 13.788 6.343 2.831 3 3.4742
El Salvador -7.901 11.904 2.799 3.498 3 2.66
Marshall Islands -2.846 1.112 -0.676 3 3 0.718
Fiji -17.04 -4.881 20.016 8.045 3.049 1.8378
Poland -2.02 6.935 5.26 0.16 3.068 2.6806
Taiwan 3.387 6.62 2.588 1.396 3.072 3.4126
Albania -3.302 8.909 4.844 3.297 3.08 3.3656
Türkiye 1.86 11.439 5.533 4.517 3.102 5.2902
Nepal -2.37 4.838 5.613 0.832 3.104 2.4034
Kazakhstan -2.6 4.1 3.299 5.101 3.109 2.6018
Morocco -7.178 8.021 1.259 3.017 3.145 1.6528
Russia -2.654 5.988 -1.201 3.585 3.163 1.7762
Zimbabwe -7.782 8.425 6.485 5.313 3.196 3.1274
Ukraine -3.753 3.446 -29.079 5.003 3.202 -4.2362
Seychelles -11.74 0.554 14.978 3.679 3.229 2.1398
Malawi 0.913 4.567 0.8 1.6 3.3 2.236
Islamic Republic of Iran 3.33 4.72 3.777 4.709 3.326 3.9724
Nigeria -1.794 3.647 3.252 2.86 3.338 2.2606
Belize -13.73 17.864 8.733 4.699 3.383 4.1896
Serbia -0.903 7.726 2.55 2.528 3.465 3.0732
Comoros -0.196 2 2.603 2.996 3.491 2.1788
Guatemala -1.792 8.002 4.118 3.474 3.5 3.4604
Nicaragua -1.766 10.347 3.751 4.686 3.5 4.1036
Timor-Leste -7.241 1.597 3.994 1.5 3.5 0.67
Tuvalu -4.275 1.804 0.677 3.853 3.514 1.1146
United Arab Emirates -4.957 4.355 7.85 3.404 3.515 2.8334
Bahrain -4.645 2.591 4.891 2.617 3.567 1.8042
Botswana -8.726 11.867 5.782 3.245 3.574 3.1484
Honduras -8.965 12.534 3.998 3.5 3.6 2.9334
Eswatini -1.56 10.683 0.476 5.133 3.699 3.6862
Barbados -12.71 -1.324 13.8 4.4 3.7 1.5726
Somalia -2.56 3.308 2.433 2.8 3.7 1.9362
Uruguay -7.38 5.562 4.707 0.367 3.7 1.3912
Montenegro -15.31 13.043 6.407 6 3.742 2.777
Kosovo -5.341 10.746 4.278 3.3 3.8 3.3566
Paraguay -0.82 4.017 0.176 4.477 3.8 2.33
Algeria -5.017 3.805 3.616 4.184 3.848 2.0872
Lao P.D.R. -0.435 2.061 2.252 3.697 3.969 2.3088
Costa Rica -4.273 7.936 4.551 5.112 3.999 3.465
Mali -1.244 3.053 3.475 4.5 4 2.7568
Venezuela -30 1 8 4 4 -2.599
Sierra Leone -1.969 4.105 3.458 3.392 4.005 2.5982
Guinea 4.704 5.583 3.972 5.7 4.074 4.8066
Grenada -13.76 4.687 7.321 4.791 4.141 1.4366
Cameroon 0.539 3.649 3.595 3.969 4.253 3.201
Burundi 0.335 3.119 1.827 2.659 4.282 2.4444
Bhutan -2.455 -3.293 4.826 4.644 4.295 1.6034
Malaysia -5.457 3.298 8.65 3.68 4.421 2.9184
Republic of Congo -6.268 1.057 1.75 4.033 4.432 1.0008
Kyrgyz Republic -7.149 5.507 6.332 4.196 4.446 2.6664
Madagascar -7.138 5.74 4 3.8 4.5 2.1804
Papua New Guinea -3.167 -0.78 5.165 2.681 4.52 1.6838
Dominica -16.61 6.892 5.648 4.726 4.589 1.05
China 2.242 8.45 2.989 5.24 4.642 4.7126
Democratic Republic of the Congo 1.671 6.037 8.774 6.14 4.699 5.4642
Zambia -2.785 6.235 5.25 4.33 4.715 3.549
St. Kitts and Nevis -14.56 -0.891 8.823 3.45 4.731 0.3104
Cabo Verde -20.81 5.615 17.117 4.792 4.742 2.2922
Mauritius -14.55 3.404 8.881 6.87 4.861 1.8938
Indonesia -2.066 3.703 5.307 5.048 4.964 3.3912
Kenya -0.273 7.59 4.847 5.507 4.974 4.529
Mozambique -1.22 2.377 4.36 6.013 4.974 3.3008
Guinea-Bissau 1.5 6.4 4.2 4.2 5 4.26
Malta -8.157 12.514 8.076 5.614 5.041 4.6176
Mauritania -0.429 0.737 6.364 4.811 5.052 3.307
Maldives -32.91 37.687 13.907 4.424 5.17 5.6558
Uzbekistan 1.996 7.403 5.673 5.989 5.198 5.2518
Liberia -2.967 5.011 4.811 4.583 5.277 3.343
St. Vincent and the Grenadines -3.739 0.754 5.5 6.23 5.3 2.809
Togo 1.976 5.991 5.811 5.4 5.3 4.8956
Samoa -3.108 -7.077 -5.308 7.99 5.35 -0.4306
Dominican Republic -6.72 12.272 4.858 2.409 5.352 3.6342
Burkina Faso 1.922 6.938 1.78 3.561 5.464 3.933
Tanzania 4.535 4.838 4.68 5.023 5.503 4.9158
South Sudan -6.494 5.329 -5.186 -0.07 5.603 -0.1636
Uganda -1.142 5.486 6.3 4.766 5.631 4.2082
Bangladesh 3.448 6.939 7.1 6.025 5.7 5.8424
Georgia -6.291 10.644 10.96 7.474 5.74 5.7054
Kiribati -0.562 8.523 3.905 4.154 5.761 4.3562
Vietnam 2.867 2.552 8.124 5.046 5.815 4.8808
Armenia -7.151 5.684 12.604 8.714 6.011 5.1724
Cambodia -3.556 3.09 5.103 4.998 6.032 3.1334
Benin 3.849 7.155 6.253 5.756 6.039 5.8104
Antigua and Barbuda -17.5 6.556 8.459 5.863 6.077 1.8904
Philippines -9.518 5.715 7.57 5.568 6.163 3.0996
The Gambia 0.591 5.256 4.905 5.555 6.223 4.506
Ethiopia 6.057 6.265 6.358 7.176 6.234 6.418
Tajikistan 4.39 9.4 8 8.25 6.456 7.2992
Côte d’Ivoire 0.701 7.062 6.862 6.2 6.5 5.465
Djibouti 1.316 4.522 3.876 6.989 6.513 4.6432
Mongolia -4.558 1.637 5.033 7.023 6.536 3.1342
India -5.778 9.69 6.987 7.827 6.808 5.1068
Rwanda -3.38 10.88 8.158 6.949 6.931 5.9076
Libya -29.46 28.335 -8.252 10.156 7.832 1.723
Senegal 1.342 6.54 4 4.102 8.252 4.8472
Niger 3.55 1.399 11.904 1.409 10.424 5.7372
Palau -7.04 -13.362 -1.964 0.8 12.4 -1.8332
Macao SAR -54.34 23.535 -21.402 80.534 13.939 8.454
Guyana 43.48 20.06 62.288 32.963 33.895 38.5372
Afghanistan -2.351 -14.542 -6.24 n/a n/a -7.711
Eritrea n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a
Lebanon -25.91 -10 n/a n/a -17.9535
Sri Lanka -4.625 3.512 -7.824 n/a n/a -2.979
Syria n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a
West Bank and Gaza -11.32 7.012 4.083 -6.134 n/a -1.58925

Source: International Monetary Fund, World Economic Outlook April 2024. Values are expressed in current international dollars, reflecting the corresponding exchange rates and PPP adjustments.

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