The World’s Most Indebted Governments 2021

Most nations have followed a risky trajectory of indebtedness after the 2008 financial crisis. When the COVID-19 pandemic struck, their borrowing shattered records.


Governments spend money on health care, education, infrastructure, defense activities and a plethora of other services and goods. But why do governments have to borrow money, especially those of the richest nations? For the simple reason that things do not always go as planned.

 

Sometimes tax revenues are less than predicted and by borrowing a government can cover the temporary shortfall without cutting back on spending. Sometimes the shortfall is not temporary and the government is running a structural deficit. Sometimes a pandemic on a scale not seen in over 100 years threatens the lives and livelihoods of millions across all regions. To sustain the economy amid lockdowns and other disease-fighting measures, governments had to borrow and borrow big. The IMF said in its April 2021 edition of the Fiscal Monitor that fiscal expenditures prompted by the pandemic amounted globally to $16 trillion. This figure—along with all the supplemental economic stimulus measures that are already in the pipeline—is forecast to push the total public worldwide debt to a record level of about 99% of the GDP, up from about 83.7% in 2019. This ratio is forecast to stay with us until at least 2026.

 

 

The only way to dig the world out of debt now appears to be, at least for now, more debt. “Until the pandemic is brought under control globally, fiscal policy must remain flexible and supportive of health care systems, households, viable firms, and the economic recovery,” the Fiscal Monitor says. Premature withdrawal of fiscal support could, in fact, slow the recovery. Bear in mind, the IMF’s economists were drawing these conclusions before the threat posed by the Delta variant of COVID-19 had yet to come in full focus.  All the more reason why pandemic-related financing countermeasures must continue to be deployed to sustain consumer spending, support health and education, provide a lifeline to vulnerable individuals and prevent them—as tens of millions already have—from falling into poverty. The implication is that since raising taxes on more affluent individuals and corporations and finding new revenue in the middle of a crisis is difficult and often counterproductive, it can—and must—be done at a later time to pay down the debt incurred in the meantime.

How well policymakers manage the pandemic-driven global depression also explains the skepticism of many economists when it comes to establishing a fixed debt-to-GDP ratio—often simply referred to as the “tipping point”—after which productivity rates decline or the risk of default increases substantially. Certain empirical evidence substantiates this agnostic position. A country like Japan has been able to sustain debt above 200% of GDP for more than a decade. While such a level of debt is certainly not healthy, countries like Argentina and Ecuador—with debt ratios that are roughly half and a third of that—have recently defaulted on their obligations. While the size of the debt matters, the ability to make the payments is even more important. Who is owed money is also crucial. Most of Japan’s debt is internal—meaning that the country’s debt is held by its citizens—diminishing greatly the risk of defaulting. Many other countries owe mostly to foreign creditors and these foreign creditors can be either trusted allies or rivals using loans as leverage to extend their strategic or military reach, a situation aptly called “debt trap.”

So how much debt is too much debt? There is no consensus among economists. Some—while agreeing that national accounts must be kept in check—reject the idea that there is an optimal “one size fits all” debt-to-GDP ratio. Other economists argue that negative effects on economic growth begin as soon as the national debt reaches about 60% of the GDP in developing and emerging economies and about 80% in developed nations while others say 40% and 60%, respectively, are prudential thresholds to be wary of. When interest rates are low and a country is going through an economic slowdown, borrowing money may be a more attractive option politically and economically than raising taxes which can dent growth. However, the key to government is that a government must be able to run a primary surplus (the excess of tax revenues over program spending) sufficient to pay back what was borrowed by a set deadline. Public debt, also called “government debt” or “national debt,” includes money owed by the government to creditors within the country (domestic, or internal debt) as well as to international creditors (foreign, or external debt).

Debt is a double-edged sword. It is often used to generate future growth, but fiscal discipline is crucial: persistently running deficits means sooner or later the default point will be reached—not considering that even when defaulting is avoided, the snowballing cost of financing debt becomes an unaffordable burden over the shoulders of future generations.


Borrowing to finance public spending requires a careful balancing act. Doing so can either promote growth or lead to fiscal imbalances that stifle it. The IMF has estimated that an increase of just 1% of GDP in high-quality public investment in both advanced economies and emerging markets could raise productivity by 2.7%, private investment by 10%, and create between 20 million and 33 million jobs. To use the words of Vitor Gaspar, director of the IMF’s Fiscal Affairs Department, fiscal policy can be a bridge out of this crisis to resilient, sustainable, and inclusive growth.


Percentage of Public Debt to GDP

Country 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021
Afghanistan 9,154 8,437 7,988 7,384 6,130 7,785 8,829
Albania 73,716 73,324 71,895 69,509 67,825 75,960 75,420
Algeria 8,747 20,452 26,825 37,815 45,771 53,067 63,312
Angola 57,093 75,663 69,265 89,000 107,107 127,115 110,745
Antigua and Barbuda 105,267 91,891 97,654 92,362 81,849 103,092 111,781
Argentina 52,563 53,060 57,028 86,431 90,194 102,998 N/A
Armenia 44,133 51,929 53,704 51,233 49,907 62,787 69,877
Aruba 73,876 75,387 75,825 75,004 72,200 116,971 130,335
Australia 37,699 40,505 41,115 41,657 47,472 63,128 72,105
Austria 84,401 82,549 78,608 74,040 70,513 85,224 87,174
Azerbaijan 17,980 20,608 22,509 18,685 17,703 21,370 30,949
The Bahamas 49,558 50,571 53,014 60,955 58,841 68,649 88,556
Bahrain 66,176 81,326 88,129 94,979 102,104 132,878 129.417
Bangladesh 33,681 33,331 33,376 34,565 35,694 38,855 40,158
Barbados 147,021 149,454 158,264 126,520 126,783 148,968 143,003
Belarus 53,007 53,482 53,160 47,515 40,999 48,045 45,176
Belgium 105,229 105,006 102,020 99,758 98,059 114,990 115,862
Belize 82,714 88,977 96,581 96,010 97,516 127,408 134,579
Benin 30,900 35,923 39,598 41,080 41,230 45,387 47,732
Bhutan 98,565 117,275 111,724 110,465 106,608 120,743 123,352
Bolivia 40,905 46,490 51,260 53,850 56,515 67,290 68,986
Bosnia and Herzegovina 45,531 44,081 39,240 34,271 32,350 38,341 38,617
Botswana 17,190 15,606 13,397 14,197 14,866 19,977 25,274
Brazil 72,573 78,286 83,362 85,642 87,658 98,943 98,407
Brunei Darussalam 2,953 3,005 2,826 2,586 2,575 2,854 2,339
Bulgaria 25,418 27,069 22,995 20,107 18,403 23,791 25,509
Burkina Faso 31,373 33,276 33,498 37,654 42,672 44,326 46,796
Burundi 39,926 46,119 46,902 52,971 60,132 69,513 75,590
Cabo Verde 126,649 128,365 127,217 125,591 124,980 139,041 137,574
Cambodia 31,157 29,124 29,995 28,638 28,974 31,576 33,371
Cameroon 31,981 33,255 37,769 39,474 41,676 43,170 42,536
Canada 91,192 91,733 88,841 88,832 86,821 117,842 116,260
Central African Republic 59,790 53,887 50,275 50,034 47,179 44,932 42,231
Chad 43,882 51,344 50,268 49,055 44,286 43,003 41,693
Chile 17,277 21,014 23,605 25,624 28,205 32,542 33,635
China 41,489 48,238 51,733 53,845 57,054 66,826 69,605
Colombia 50,419 49,796 49,436 53,584 52,315 62,787 64,169
Comoros 14,520 15,141 19,346 18,575 25,249 26,807 29,964
Democratic Republic of the Congo 16,995 19,534 19,053 15,298 15,538 15,156 12,384
Republic of Congo 74,190 91,048 94,224 78,557 83,317 101,682 90,457
Costa Rica 39,786 44,054 47,063 51,909 56,837 68,347 72,484
Côte d’Ivoire 34,194 35,637 36,854 40,095 41,221 45,707 46,289
Croatia 84,322 80,796 77,529 74,250 72,830 87,207 86.290
Cyprus 107,159 103,064 93,510 99,177 94,036 118,201 112,969
Czech Republic 39,700 36,589 34,236 32,065 30245 37,570 43,986
Denmark 39,774 37,200 35,528 33,835 33,012 43,420 41,608
Djibouti 39,913 45,685 47,916 46,508 38,655 42,236 40,232
Dominica 75,284 76,548 84,182 79,677 91,008 97,102 96,406
Dominican Republic 44,921 46,569 48840 50,403 53,537 69,405 66,599
Ecuador 33,798 43,166 44,617 46,139 51,502 64,582 65,104
Egypt 88,305 96,809 103,040 92,484 84,214 90,186 92,858
El Salvador 67,038 68,766 70,526 70,094 70,957 88,204 88,224
Equatorial Guinea 31,657 41,139 36,235 40,155 44,022 51,079 44,051
Eritrea 180,712 167,511 202,536 185,607 189,350 184,701 175,575
Estonia 9,996 9,913 9,112 8,201 8,439 18,498 25,144
Eswatini 19,254 24,901 27,948 34,271 39,816 47,075 52,775
Ethiopia 54,455 54,871 57,723 61,106 57,720 55,263 56,035
Fiji 43,045 44,718 44,408 46,389 48,896 73,657 83,629
Finland 63,642 63,176 61,167 59,618 59,327 67,098 68,788
France 95,582 97,958 98,318 97,989 98,070 113,461 115,219
Gabon 44,703 64,199 62,886 60,914 59,549 72,504 71,054
The Gambia 69,369 80,948 86,979 84,611 80,115 75,827 73,913
Georgia 36,666 40,255 38,854 37,496 40,436 60,621 63,858
Germany 72,316 69,277 65,102 61,780 59,644 68,929 70,251
Ghana 54,802 57,094 58,324 63,234 63,899 78,009 81,470
Greece 178,984 184,413 182,378 189,886 184,903 213,101 210,093
Grenada 90,100 81,568 70,109 64,358 59,704 70,627 74,460
Guatemala 24,803 24,956 25,107 26,506 26,591 31,742 33,142
Guinea 41,938 42,453 40,483 38,290 36,786 41,379 42,278
Guinea-Bissau 54,069 56,967 50,019 59,231 66,949 78,066 78,078
Guyana 37,428 39,642 38,909 43,105 39,792 43,889 41,365
Haiti 23,831 24,830 24,612 25,553 30,288 25,134 25,953
Honduras 37,114 38,174 38,854 39,995 41,895 48,882 53,394
Hong Kong SAR 0.062 0.059 0.055 0.052 0.269 0.284 0.934
Hungary 75,821 74,932 72,163 69,123 65,329 81,195 80,033
Iceland 97,223 79,896 69,352 61,148 68,329 79,867 82,516
India 68,776 68,712 69,457 70,237 73,887 89,559 86,597
Indonesia 27,013 27,955 29,396 30,423 30,564 36,621 41,368
Islamic Republic of Iran 13,954 44,650 36,917 38,472 47,864 42,768 36,575
Iraq 56,934 67,006 59,061 50,018 47,705 81,153 69,684
Ireland 76,609 74,213 67,330 62,905 57,387 59,801 63,204
Israel 63,826 62,113 60,607 60,877 59,979 73,035 78,302
Italy 135,280 134,783 134,134 134,398 134,561 155,562 157,133
Jamaica 121,878 113,695 101,225 94,386 94,258 105,583 96,500
Japan 228,397 232,520 231,416 232,509 234,859 256,217 256,494
Jordan 78,423 77,432 76,022 75,061 78,015 88,540 91,172
Kazakhstan 21,882 19,677 19,869 20,259 19,944 27,363 27,030
Kenya 48,612 50,534 56,881 60,235 62,141 68,687 71,474
Kiribati 19,899 21,941 21,423 19,372 18,096 17,258 21,358
Korea 40,784 41,217 40,050 40,022 42,245 48,681 53,171
Kosovo 13,116 14,394 16,232 16,953 17,570 24,414 28,505
Kuwait 4,653 10,018 20,485 14,838 11,771 11,469 13,743
Kyrgyz Republic 67,087 59,073 58,786 54,818 54,144 74,264 73,412
Lao P.D.R. 53,052 54,474 57,198 59,650 61,648 67,984 68,288
Latvia 36,454 39,793 40,081 36,400 36,971 45,480 47,175
Lebanon 140,812 146,246 149,668 154,907 174,317 154,364 N/A
Lesotho 45,574 40,432 39,873 49,566 49,288 50,264 49,793
Liberia 26,390 28,474 33,659 39,705 55,376 61,767 56,955
Lithuania 42,681 39,896 39,338 33,681 35,911 46,980 49,518
Luxembourg 21,986 20,094 22,342 20,953 21,991 25,546 26,807
Macao SAR 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000
Madagascar 44,062 40,281 40,136 39,774 37,784 43,580 46,876
Malawi 54,430 55,096 57,068 59,683 59,479 67,264 76,779
Malaysia 56,971 55,787 54,396 55,658 57,160 67,502 66,974
Maldives 54,921 62,260 64,401 71,535 78,144 142,576 139,667
Mali 30,666 35,930 35,477 36,112 40,492 44,150 46,131
Malta 55,880 54,294 48,519 44,838 41,989 55,430 57,860
Marshall Islands 33,852 29,264 25,575 23,331 23,344 23,837 23,256
Mauritania 58,747 56,555 55,100 61,389 56,538 59,534 56,273
Mauritius 64,993 64,987 64,340 66,223 82,804 87,779 87,772
Mexico 52,775 56,724 53,963 53,609 53,301 60,589 60,537
Micronesia 25,629 24,191 21,923 18,761 17,057 15,978 15,337
Moldova 42,381 39,323 34,300 31,640 28,332 35,311 39,488
Mongolia 62,110 87,590 84,367 74,276 68,438 76,574 77,868
Montenegro 68,760 66,390 66,207 71,885 78,725 108,846 94,583
Morocco 63,688 64,879 65,214 65,198 65,162 76,072 77,138
Mozambique 87,426 119,881 100.14 105.33 103.378 122,225 125,309
Myanmar 36,374 38,334 38,470 40,415 38,753 39,301 49,065
Namibia 41,264 44,847 43,235 50,402 59,900 65,662 71,419
Nauru 105,838 79,556 76,689 74,316 61,992 59,739 57,128
Nepal 25,730 24,957 24,989 30,081 33,133 41,309 49,635
Netherlands 64,632 61,887 56,940 52,426 47,597 53,971 56,076
New Zealand 34,218 33,363 31,098 28,071 32,059 41,337 46,355
Nicaragua 28,911 30,916 34,080 37,559 41,734 46,005 47,642
Niger 29,870 32,826 36,494 36,907 39,802 44,221 44,519
Nigeria 20,328 23,410 25,340 27,685 29,167 35,054 31,943
North Macedonia 38,077 39,810 39,383 40,425 40,640 51,250 53,839
Norway 34,544 38,126 38,636 39,657 40,883 41,400 41,600
Oman 15,470 30,283 44,757 51,389 59,986 81,085 71,302
Pakistan 63,320 67,646 67,060 72,077 85,555 87,206 87,654
Panama 35,499 34,841 34,794 36,890 41,943 63,455 61,358
Papua New Guinea 29,931 33,740 32,484 36,676 40,028 49,178 49,560
Paraguay 18,637 19,409 19,841 22,243 25,619 34,776 35,693
Peru 24,066 24,413 25,423 26,176 27,094 35,364 35,364
Philippines 39,640 37,343 38,108 37,134 36,969 47,071 51,876
Poland 51,268 54,198 50,614 48,818 45,684 57,688 57,395
Portugal 131,179 131,506 126,143 121,481 116,841 131,628 131,421
Puerto Rico 52,736 49,877 51,206 55,673 58,119 67,901 64,826
Qatar 35,547 46,707 51,569 52,177 62,277 71,779 59,834
Romania 39.388 38,951 36,836 36,468 36,823 50,105 52,622
Russia 15,286 14,849 14,311 13,620 13,800 19,345 18,135
Rwanda 32,222 36,382 41,317 44,991 50,965 60,962 66,049
Samoa 58,929 51,724 49,640 52,829 47,445 46,694 48,975
San Marino 33,503 35,246 76,641 78,544 84,478 102,331 102,552
São Tomé and Príncipe 85,797 95,297 85,839 83,079 73,069 81,385 72,368
Saudi Arabia 5,800 13,093 17,160 18,980 22,79 32,435 31,028
Senegal 44,509 47,524 61,139 63,529 64,798 65,811 66,833
Serbia 71,233 68,722 58,649 54,405 52,769 58,369 58,988
Seychelles 67,148 69,138 62,122 59,084 57,746 98,375 110,357
Sierra Leone 45,686 60,725 69,155 69,089 71,656 71,947 70,374
Singapore 102,244 106,357 107,763 109,751 12,010 128,371 129,540
Slovak Republic 51,918 52,413 51,690 49,864 48,458 60,661 63,977
Slovenia 82,558 78,520 74,149 70,291 65,598 81,452 80,535
Solomon Islands 8,964 7,071 8,386 8,300 8,313 13,939 22,285
South Africa 49,335 51,465 53,022 56,710 62,151 77,064 80,780
South Sudan 59,272 104,000 60,700 46,300 35,467 44,881 46,974
Spain 99,303 99,166 98,577 97,435 95,508 117,083 118,352
Sri Lanka 78,487 79,016 77,902 84,209 86,802 100,078 105,445
St. Kitts and Nevis 67,007 59,633 59,413 57,212 56,284 65,460 72,479
St. Lucia 60,567 60,285 59,869 59,979 61,321 84,404 88,411
St. Vincent and the Grenadines 79,361 83,530 73,501 75,642 75,115 87,178 91,766
Sudan 93,193 109,938 152,880 185,610 200,349 262,519 211,656
Suriname 44,016 79,291 79,795 76,293 92,508 165,766 157,396
Sweden 43,379 42,255 40,732 38,860 35,126 38,489 40,388
Switzerland 41,655 40,481 41,204 39,215 39,761 42,949 44,826
Taiwan Province of China 35,941 35,364 34,514 33,919 32,690 33,670 32,503
Tajikistan 34,691 42,093 50,293 47,819 43,126 48,136 49,828
Tanzania 37,137 37,024 37,671 38,699 38,242 38,182 37,905
Thailand 42,559 41,175 41,778 41,950 41,043 49,637 55,925
Timor-Leste 2,942 4,676 6,645 9,288 9,575 12,182 14,960
Togo 53,446 60,302 57,034 57,334 53,571 57,600 59,967
Tonga 51,176 49,415 43,647 45,871 41,281 41,561 43,711
Trinidad and Tobago 27,323 37,063 42,582 42,378 46,471 59,378 62,076
Tunisia 55,402 62,282 70,914 77,459 71,825 87,635 91,190
Turkey 27,362 27,999 28,027 30,173 32,598 36,765 37,106
Turkmenistan 22,096 25,142 30,529 31,445 32,910 31,032 25,959
Tuvalu 23,633 20,212 18,130 17,282 16,256 14,252 11,793
Uganda 28,672 31,037 33,654 34,883 37,254 45,744 48,833
Ukraine 79,503 81,176 71,620 60,308 48,764 60,747 58,124
United Arab Emirates 16,650 19,366 21,623 20,906 26,833 38,329 37,105
United Kingdom 86,720 86,775 86,314 85,775 85,243 103,659 107,128
United States 104,669 106,622 105,624 106,600 108,190 127,113 132,839
Uruguay 58,152 56,780 56,520 58,567 60,182 66,264 67,996
Uzbekistan 7,081 8,628 20,226 20,432 29,415 37,908 42,293
Vanuatu 37,454 43,554 46,360 48,083 45,342 44,208 48,727
Venezuela 11,045 5,054 26,004 180,789 232,786 304,125 n/a
Vietnam 46,116 47,637 46,309 43,580 43,365 46,615 47,975
West Bank and Gaza 37,071 31,027 31,785 33,145 34,469 47,236 47,898
Yemen 57,031 72,255 77,426 74,,544 76,527 83,156 72,976
Zambia 65,551 60,646 63,008 77,328 94,497 117,761 118,731
Zimbabwe 47,473 48,490 43,726 33,634 112,118 88,873 51,359

Source: International Monetary Fund, World Economic Outlook Database, October 2020.

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