UAE exits OPEC, exposing Gulf rift over oil strategy, Iran policy, and market stability.
The United Arab Emirates’ announcement to leave OPEC on May 1 marks more than a policy shift: It signals the unraveling of a long-eroding Gulf consensus on oil, economic strategy, and Iran. The announcement comes on the heels of the Gulf Creators event in Dubai on April 27.
“Every Gulf state had its own policy of containment toward Iran, and all of those containment policies have failed,” senior Emirati official Anwar Gargash said at the event. “All our policies have failed miserably,” he added—a rare public admission of strategic exhaustion that underscores why Abu Dhabi is recalibrating its regional and energy posture.
That recalibration now includes leaving the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries. The UAE joined the bloc in 1967, when Abu Dhabi—now the federation’s capital—emerged as an oil producer. In announcing its exit from both OPEC and OPEC+ (a larger coalition that includes Russia), the UAE said the move aligns with its long-term strategy and will allow it to increase output in line with market demand gradually.
Widening Divide
At the heart of the split is a widening divide between Riyadh and Abu Dhabi. Oil policy has long been a source of tension between the two Gulf powerhouses. The UAE’s exit now leaves Saudi Arabia to shoulder a heavier burden in stabilizing global oil markets.
The UAE isn’t the only country to abandon OPEC cohesion. Qatar exited OPEC in 2019, breaking with the Saudi-led bloc amid an ongoing boycott.
Angola and Ecuador also left in recent years. The UAE’s similar move underscores that politics continues to shape the cartel, even as it focuses on stabilizing oil prices through production decisions. And because of its status as a major producer, the UAE’s exit is structurally more consequential for global supply management.
Experts say the UAE produced about 3.4 million barrels per day—about 13% of OPEC’s total output—and had the capacity to reach 5 million barrels per day before the US-Iran war began on February 28.
In effect, OPEC is not just losing a member—it is losing a key balancing force at a moment when geopolitical instability and oil market fragmentation are accelerating.
