COP 30: More Than Just Words?

According to Marina Cançado, founder and CEO of sustainability advisory Converge Capital, this is when COP should move from discussion to implementation.

“Most agreement points have already been negotiated,” she says. “We need to move on. Major focus and expectations also center around Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs)—the voluntary amount each country is committing to fight climate change—for the next 10 years. The success of the COP30 will be measured by decoupling agreements signed to actual commitment levels that start now.”

As per a September report by the Interamerican Bank for Development (IBD) in preparation for the COP30, climate financing by multilateral development banks (MDBs) rose by 10% to $137 billion in 2024 year-on-year, with climate finance for low- and middle-income economies increasing by 14% to over $85 billion and private financing for climate investments jumping 33%.

“The private sector is the one who will have to lead the reduction of emissions, rethinking business models, logistics, materials and manufacturing processes, but it will need financing to align its actions with the Paris goals,” says Cançado. “We need to quadruple financing from the current $2 trillion per year to between $8 and $9 trillion. Two-thirds of these resources already come from the private sector, according to the UNFCCC, and they will have to continue coming from this side of the equation.”

Quantified Financial Goals

One of COP30’s central discussions is translating political ambition into deployable capital. Top of the agenda is the NCQG process to fulfill the $1.3 trillion in climate finance for developing countries that is expected to be operationalized at the Belém meeting, according to the UNFCCC.

According to Ian Lopes, an economist and investment advisor at Brazilian investment house Valor Investimentos, mobilizing that amount requires minimizing risk instruments that can attract capital for emerging-markets mitigation and adaptation.

“We originally had a market boom of investment funds related to ESG concepts, but those have been declining over time in favor of a more solid model focused on governance,” says Lopes. “We cannot dissociate market effects from real-life economics and the financial sector—they are completely interlinked—but there are high expectations COP30 will galvanize public and private partnerships to achieve the NCQG’s $1.3 trillion goal. Obviously, agreements that benefit the global economy as a whole impact the financial sector, making markets react instantaneously.”

However, Lopes cautions that the implementation of carbon markets, where corporates pay for their emissions will increase manufacturing costs, which must be offset with the help of government and sovereign funds or regulation.

“These can come in the form of tax incentives or punishments, regulatory oversight, but also creative models such as offsetting taxes on certain modes of transport, like we already see in Europe,” he says. Corporations, especially in the US, Europe, and China, tend to be better at having long-term strategies for such things, pre-empting higher costs by transitioning or including them in future planning. On the other hand, Middle Eastern and certain Chinese certain corporations and fossil fuel-related industries that didn’t prioritize ESG are only now reviewing their strategy, because social and economic costs are more evident.”

Brazil Looks to Lead

A COP30 host, Brazil has stated an ambition to bring forward other major nature-finance instruments at the summit, including the Tropical Forests Forever Facility (TFFF), which is pitched as a multibillion-dollar financing vehicle to reward forest stewardship. Early market briefs put out by the Brazilian government and COP30 organizers estimate the TFFF could mobilize up to $4 billion per year in dedicated forest payments.

This initiative is part of what Lopes highlights as the moment for Brazil to showcase its potential and leading position in the global transitional economy, something he says is often neglected.

“Brazil already has 80% of its energy matrix based on renewables, making it greatly attractive for international institutional investors such as sovereign wealth funds from the Middle East,” he adds. “We need to show the country is a good and safe investment destination, with strong legal safeguards that prioritize the environment, governance and long-term economic development.”

“We also have space availability and the large hydropower matrix and water resources needed to attract major investment in global data centers that are power-hungry, but also require water cooling,” he says. “This is a perfect fit, and can attract vast sums of capital here. We just need to foment credibility and increase the country’s profile.”

Cançado has similar views: “This is a great opportunity for people to see the forest as a place with more than 30 million inhabitants and to focus the conversation on conservation, protection, and sustainable development of this vital global region.

“Brazil is already a pioneer and leader in decarbonization and nature-positive solutions in various sectors. COP30 gives us the opportunity to position the country as a reference and hub of global climate and nature solutions, as well as to catalyze resources to make these solutions scalable, generating wealth, jobs, and GDP while contributing globally to the transition.”

Belém’s selection as host city, while putting a focus on the Amazon, also created myriad bottlenecks that have required local authorities to heavily expand infrastructure and accommodation in a short timeframe. According to the federal government and Pará state, of which Belém is the capital city, public spending to prepare the city for the more than 55,000 delegates and heads of government expected to attend the summit at various points has reached approximately R$4.5 billion (about $820 million).

Elizabeth Grunvald, president of the Commercial Association of Pará and a key stakeholder in getting Belém ready for the summit, says the city is ready for the event.

“A concerted effort between the federal, state, and city governments allowed for innovative solutions,” she notes, “such as adding 22,000 new temporary and permanent hotel beds, investing in the airport and roads, partnering with private hosts, and doing infrastructure work on 12 of the 16 water channels that crisscross the city for sanitation work.”

Cançado says perceived difficulties of hosting the summit in the Amazon also led to creative thinking to facilitate participation by those not able to attend personally.

“The private sector created parallel events happening in other major cities across the country before and during COP30 to link up with the summit,” she says. “We are hosting the Climate Implementation Summit in Sao Paulo a week before the event, with CEOs and global private sector leaderships, the Investment COP in Belém during the first week of the summit focusing specifically on the financial sector.”

Summit Goals vs. Realism gap

Although the private sector has made numerous pledges in the run-up to COP30, including accelerated renewables deployment, nature investments, and green product rollouts, past COP cycles show a gap between the headlines and financial deployment at scale, according to UN data. The crucial test in Belém will be whether the NCQG’s aspirational implementation doesn’t become a political talking point rather than a durable reallocation of capital.

“Per COP standards, agreements are non-binding and serve as a signal to countries and companies,” says Cançado. “The private sector already understands the climate agenda is one of innovation, prosperity, and resilience that makes economic sense. The measure of success needs to be expanded to include not only what is negotiated, but also engagement and concrete action.”